Western Pollsters Question Statistical Validity of Georgian Election Results

Two American polling firms, hired by opposition television networks to conduct exit polls, have stated that the outcomes of Georgia’s recent election are inexplicable. These reports from HarrisX and Edison Research followed extensive irregularities noted by election observers during the vote held last Saturday in the South Caucasus nation. The evaluations provided by Edison Research and HarrisX are expected to strengthen the arguments of opposition parties and the Georgian president, all of whom have denounced the election as manipulated and illicit. Conversely, the governing Georgian Dream (GD) party maintains that the election was free and fair, despite admitting to irregularities in “just a couple” of polling stations. Edison Research reported that the 13-point discrepancy between its projection and the 54% majority awarded to GD is not attributable to typical statistical margins and “suggests local-level manipulation of the vote”. HarrisX presented a comparable assessment, indicating a divergence exceeding 8% of votes, “pointing to possible voting irregularities”. The election commission, responsible for certifying the official results, declared itself subject to “unfounded attack”. Opposition factions had characterized the election as a decision between Europe and adjacent Russia. President Salome Zourabichvili claims the election was illicitly taken as part of a “Russian special operation”. The EU, US, and Nato have demanded a transparent investigation into numerous instances of irregularities. On Saturday, exit polls carried out by both HarrisX and Edison Research indicated a victory for the four opposition parties, significantly surpassing GD, which they reported garnered up to 42% of the vote. HarrisX, having surveyed 12,000 voters, pointed out “statistically unexplainable discrepancies” within election commission data across a minimum of 27 districts in Georgia, and observed “unusual vote shifts” since the 2020 election. In Marneuli, a town where Georgian Dream (GD) acknowledged that violations occurred, two individuals, including the town’s deputy council leader, have been apprehended on suspicion of ballot-stuffing. HarrisX reported that, based on the election commission’s data, GD secured 80% of the votes in Marneuli, while the pollster’s own exit poll indicated a figure of 40%. Edison stated that it observed the greatest divergence from anticipated results in rural regions, which were probably subject to the “most significant vote manipulation at the polling location level”. Leading opposition factions have scheduled additional protests for next Monday, following an initial demonstration that drew tens of thousands to Rustaveli Avenue outside parliament earlier this week. Georgian monitors have documented multiple voting irregularities, such as vote-buying, ballot-stuffing, and the confiscation of voters’ IDs prior to the election. However, the election commission has dismissed accusations of bias and refuted Zourabichvili’s claims of alleged carousel voting within Georgia’s new electronic voting system, asserting that casting more than one vote is impossible. Public prosecutors summoned the president for interrogation this week to substantiate her fraud allegations, but she responded that this responsibility lay with them.