Manchester Derby Preview: Five Key Points for an Unconventional Match

The Manchester derby has been contested 193 times across all competitions, with City securing 61 victories, United 78, and 54 matches ending in a draw. The upcoming Manchester derby this weekend carries an unusual atmosphere, largely attributed to the minimal stakes involved. While there is a possibility that Manchester City’s current poor run, with only one win in 10 games—a situation unprecedented in the Pep Guardiola era—could worsen, or that the extent of Manchester United’s latest rebuild under Ruben Amorim might be further exposed by their rivals. However, discussions about title challenges for either side, or the notion of United finally “being back,” are notably absent. The following are five key discussion points leading up to Sunday’s fixture. United currently hold their lowest points total after 15 matches in the Premier League era. City’s points total at this stage is their lowest since the 2010-11 season. Ahead of this weekend’s games, United occupied 13th place in the league standings, while City were in fourth. City has accumulated only four points from their last six Premier League matches. No other team has earned fewer points during this period, with only Southampton matching that tally. Combining the results of both teams, this marks Manchester’s poorest Premier League start since 2002, the year City returned to the top flight. City and United collectively have 46 points from 30 games between them. They had a combined 11 more points at this stage last season, and 32 more points in the 2017-18 season. This will be the first Premier League Manchester derby where neither team is among the top three at the start of the day since a goalless draw at Old Trafford on 12 December 2020. United have suffered defeat in five of their last six Premier League encounters against Manchester City, conceding 18 goals in those five losses. The sole exception in this sequence was a 2-1 victory at Old Trafford on 14 January 2023. United have lost their last three Premier League visits to Etihad Stadium, with an aggregate score of 13-5. The Red Devils could potentially equal their longest away losing streak against a single Premier League team, matching their current record of four consecutive losses against Arsenal (from 2022 to the present). This outcome would also equal their longest away losing streak in league Manchester derbies, a record of four losses from 1952 to 1955. Why Man City might struggle against Man Utd’s back three Neither Manchester club is conceding many chances in the Premier League this season; however, the opportunities they do allow are of exceptionally high quality. Despite prevailing narratives regarding City’s defensive vulnerabilities, they have actually faced the fewest shots in the league. United also boast a strong record in this regard, with only City, Liverpool, and Aston Villa having faced fewer shots. Nevertheless, City are allowing the highest quality chances by a significant margin, followed by Ipswich and then United. On the offensive end, Erling Haaland and Phil Foden, each with six goals, have accounted for 12 of City’s last 13 goals in Premier League Manchester derbies. Only three other players have scored more in these fixtures: Sergio Aguero (8), Wayne Rooney (8), and Eric Cantona (7). Ruben Amorim’s Manchester United is expected to deploy a formation featuring two ‘number 10s’ positioned on either side of City’s lone defensive midfielder. Following Crystal Palace’s 2-2 draw with Manchester City last Saturday, manager Oliver Glasner openly discussed how he believed his team could exploit City’s current difficulties. Glasner stated, “We knew we can play a higher intensity [than City] – all the data showed this. We knew when we get into the transitions, we’d get in behind.” He further explained, “There was so much space on the opposite side next to [Ilkay] Gundogan. When you play with one number six, 4-1-4-1, like City are playing, there is a lot of space on the left and right of the number six.” As Glasner highlighted, a strategy involving intensity, rapid transitions, and targeting the ‘number six’ position appears to be an effective approach against City currently, and United possess the tactical setup to implement this. Ruben Amorim’s 3-4-2-1 formation places two number 10s just behind a striker, while City’s 4-1-4-1 isolates their number six in precisely that same area of the pitch. Crystal Palace’s first goal in the 2-2 draw originated when Will Hughes, in the absence of the injured Rodri for the visitors, had sufficient time to advance and deliver a through ball to Daniel Munoz. Ilkay Gundogan (19) was out of position, compelling the two City centre-backs to attempt to step out. Amad Diallo’s dribbles have been directly instrumental in five of United’s six league goals scored under Amorim. Should United initiate a counter-attack, City’s stretched midfield could become preoccupied with United’s two central midfielders, thereby creating space for the two number 10s to deliver through balls. This tactical scenario unfolded in Sporting’s 4-1 Champions League victory against City last month, where Amorim’s former team predominantly played on the break and scored twice by penetrating the areas that Mateo Kovacic, operating as the lone number six, was unable to cover. Manchester City’s Kovacic, burdened by being the sole number six, was unable to close down effectively enough to prevent the through ball that led to Sporting’s first goal. After Kovacic was drawn out of position and bypassed by a successful dribble, City’s midfield was once again exposed, enabling Sporting to score their second goal.