Potential Challenges for Netanyahu in a Second Trump Presidency

In central Jerusalem, opposite the US embassy building, a bar named Deja Bu offers a clever nod to repetition. Outside the US compound’s gates, Israel expresses a strong desire for a second term for Donald Trump. “I’m very pleased,” stated Rafael Shore, a rabbi residing in Jerusalem’s Old City. “He understands the language of the Middle East.” Shore added, “Iran will think twice about doing anything. I think if Kamala had been elected, there wouldn’t be much fear in the Middle East of attacking America or Israel.” Israel’s Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, was among the initial figures to congratulate the new president-elect on Wednesday morning. He conveyed his message via tweet: “Congratulations on history’s greatest comeback!” Netanyahu had previously characterized Trump as the “best friend Israel has ever had in the White House.” Trump had previously gained approval in the region by canceling an Iran nuclear agreement that Israel opposed, facilitating landmark normalization accords with several Arab nations, and altering decades of US foreign policy—along with international consensus—by recognizing Jerusalem as Israel’s capital. Donald Trump’s initial period in office was considered “exemplary” from Israel’s perspective, according to Michael Oren, a former Israeli ambassador to the US. Oren remarked, “The hope is that he’ll revisit that. [But] we have to be very clear-sighted about who Donald Trump is and what he stands for.” Firstly, Oren noted that the former president “doesn’t like wars,” viewing them as costly. Trump has advised Israel to conclude the war in Gaza swiftly. Ambassador Oren also mentioned that Trump is “not a big fan” of Israel’s settlements in the occupied West Bank and has opposed certain Israeli leaders’ desires to annex parts of it. These two stances could lead to disagreements with far-right factions within Netanyahu’s current governing coalition, which have threatened to collapse the government if the prime minister pursues policies they do not endorse. When faced with a choice between the recent demands of his US ally and those of his coalition partners, Benjamin Netanyahu has typically prioritized his coalition. Consequently, tensions with the current US President, Joe Biden, have intensified considerably. Michael Oren believes that Netanyahu will need to adopt a different strategy with the incoming president. “If Donald Trump comes into office in January and says, ‘OK, you have a week to finish this war,’ Netanyahu is going to have to respect that.” In Gaza, where the Israeli military is engaged in conflict with the Palestinian group Hamas, the dire circumstances have narrowed the focus of some residents to this singular objective. Trump “has some strong promises,” Ahmed stated. “We hope he can help and bring peace.” Ahmed’s wife and son were both killed in the war, and his residence was destroyed. “Enough is enough, we are tired,” he declared. “We hope Trump is strong so that he can resolve this issue with Israel.” Mohammed Dawoud, who has been displaced eight times during the Gaza conflict, expressed that a Trump victory signaled the imminent end of the war. Another displaced resident, Mamdouh, indicated that he was indifferent to the election outcome, desiring only assistance. “There’s no medicine, no hospitals, no food. There’s nothing left in Gaza,” he lamented. “We want someone strong who can separate us and the Jews.” In the occupied West Bank, the seat of the Palestinian Authority (PA), there is widespread skepticism regarding American influence, with many perceiving US administrations from both political spectrums as favoring Israel. “Mediocre solutions which come at the expense of the Palestinians, or endless military support for Israel, is going to be nothing but a catalyst for future confrontations,” asserted Sabri Saidam, a senior member of Fatah, the PA’s primary faction. He added, “We would like to see a new version of Trump, more like a Trump 2.0 who’s serious about immediately ending the war, and addressing the root cause of conflict in the Middle East.” Recent surveys indicated that over two-thirds of Israelis wished for Trump’s return to the White House. However, even within Israel, some advise caution regarding his unpredictability and methods. “He’s going to make the situation here more uncertain and unsafe,” an Israeli woman commented. “I don’t trust him to keep the peace. I honestly think he’ll just make the war worse.” Former Israeli ambassador Michael Oren suggested that “tremendous achievements ahead” were possible if Israel collaborated with Trump, including the prospect of a historic peace agreement with Saudi Arabia and measures to curb Iran’s influence. Nevertheless, it could prove more challenging for Netanyahu to manage the demands and concessions required for these regional objectives. Since Trump’s previous term in office, the number of moderate voices surrounding both leaders has diminished. Many in Israel recall Trump’s first term favorably. Yet, relationships can evolve significantly in a subsequent period, and past performance does not guarantee future outcomes.