Canada’s Potential to Emerge as a Nuclear Energy ‘Superpower’

The resurgence of uranium is attributed to a renewed emphasis on nuclear energy as a solution to the climate crisis. Canada, possessing abundant high-grade deposits, has the potential to become a nuclear “superpower”. The question remains whether this potential can be fully achieved. Leigh Curyer, a professional with almost two decades of experience in uranium mining, observed a notable change. The 2011 Fukushima nuclear plant disaster in Japan significantly impacted global perceptions of nuclear power, causing the price of uranium – a vital component for nuclear fuel – to plummet. However, the past five years have witnessed a turnaround, with the worldwide price of uranium increasing by over 200%, establishing it as one of this year’s leading commodities. Mr. Curyer, an Australian-born businessman, attributes this shift to a change in sentiment that started shortly after Microsoft founder Bill Gates promoted nuclear energy in 2018 as “ideal for dealing with climate change.” Four years subsequent to this, then-UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson advanced a policy aiming to generate a minimum of 25% of the United Kingdom’s energy from nuclear sources. Soon thereafter, the European Union formally voted to classify nuclear energy as climate-friendly. These occurrences were “catalytic” for the uranium sector and represented a pivotal moment for Mr. Curyer’s company, NexGen, which is developing Canada’s largest uranium mine. He reported receiving calls from investors globally, an occurrence that “had never happened in my previous 17 years in the industry.” NexGen, with its project situated in Canada’s remote, uranium-rich Athabasca Basin in northern Saskatchewan, currently holds a valuation of nearly $4bn (£2.98bn), even though the mine is not projected to become commercially operational before 2028. Should it receive full regulatory approval, NexGen’s project could independently enable Canada to surpass Kazakhstan as the world’s leading uranium producer within the next decade. In response to this surge, other companies have also converged on Saskatchewan, initiating their own exploration projects in the area, while established entities have reactivated previously dormant mines. Given its extensive resources, Canada’s mining companies envision the nation as a significant contributor to the future of nuclear energy, addressing an anticipated increase in uranium demand following commitments by nearly two dozen countries at the COP28 climate conference to triple their nuclear energy output by 2050. Nuclear energy is frequently praised for its minimal carbon emissions when contrasted with alternative sources such as natural gas or coal. The World Nuclear Association estimates that nuclear sources account for 10% of global power generation, whereas over 50% continues to be generated by gas or coal. At the current year’s COP29, attention has been directed towards increasing funding for nuclear projects, following a recent UN report that highlighted the inadequacy of existing policies and investments to curb the rise in global temperatures. Canada’s contribution to the supply of this commodity has gained increased urgency due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, especially for the US, which previously depended significantly on Russian-supplied enriched uranium for its commercial nuclear reactors. Mr. Curyer asserts that his mine could become “absolutely critical” for America’s nuclear energy future, given that the US is currently seeking alternatives to Russia, including by intensifying exploration within its own territory. Uranium deposits are distributed globally, with significant concentrations found in Canada, Australia, and Kazakhstan. However, the Athabasca Region in Canada is distinctive because its uranium is exceptionally high grade, according to Markus Piro, a professor of nuclear engineering at McMaster University. Professor Piro stated that Canada has established stringent regulations for the export of its uranium, stipulating that it must be used exclusively for nuclear power generation. He also mentioned that the country is recognized as a “tier-one nuclear nation” because of its capacity to produce nuclear fuel from the initial mining phase through to manufacturing. After extraction, uranium undergoes milling to yield calcined yellowcake. Subsequently, it can be enriched at international facilities, if required, to produce fuel for nuclear reactors. Professor Piro remarked, “We’ve got a one-stop shop here in Canada, not every nation’s like that.” The Canadian government reports that Canada currently ranks as the world’s second-largest uranium producer, contributing approximately 13% of the total global output. NexGen projects that its mine, once operational, will increase this share to 25%. Concurrently, Cameco, a company that has been mining uranium in Saskatchewan since 1988 and supplies 30 nuclear reactors globally, reactivated two of its mines in late 2022 to boost production. Tim Gitzel, CEO, informed the BBC of his belief that “Canada could be a nuclear superpower around the world.” Nevertheless, the enthusiasm surrounding nuclear energy faces opposition. Certain environmental organizations express concerns that nuclear projects are excessively expensive and have development timelines that are incompatible with the pressing nature of the climate crisis. Figures from the UK-based World Nuclear Association indicate that 65 nuclear reactors are currently being built across 16 nations, predominantly in China, with an additional 90 in the planning phase. While some are anticipated to commence operations this year, others are not expected to be ready until at least the close of the decade. In contrast, over 100 nuclear plants globally have ceased operations in the past two decades, including the only nuclear power plant near New York City, which was decommissioned in 2021 citing high operating costs and environmental and safety issues. Additionally, plants were closed in Massachusetts, Pennsylvania, and Quebec, Canada. Furthermore, not all regions of Canada support the nation’s uranium industry. British Columbia possesses its own uranium reserves but has prohibited the operation of any nuclear plants or uranium mines within the province since 1980. Critics have also voiced apprehension regarding the radioactive waste generated by nuclear reactors, which persists for future generations. Other individuals express concern about the possibility of another disaster on the scale of Fukushima, where a tsunami incapacitated three reactors, leading to the discharge of highly radioactive materials and necessitating widespread evacuations. Professor Piro acknowledged, “The risk is not zero, that is for sure,” while noting that it can be mitigated. He added, “Even though amongst the general public there are mixed feelings about it, the reality is that it has produced very safe, very reliable and affordable electricity worldwide.” The industry asserts that the technology holds both promise and viability. Mr. Gitzel from Cameco stated that the industry has assimilated lessons from previous safety shortcomings. He further commented, “And the public is buying on,” adding, “I can tell you that we have in Canada great public support for nuclear power.” A 2023 Ipsos poll reveals that 55% of Canadians endorse nuclear energy. Nevertheless, previous uranium booms in Canada have historically resulted in significant downturns. North of NexGen’s planned mine lies Uranium City, which in its mid-20th Century peak housed 2,500 residents. In 1982, a prominent local mining company ceased operations due to elevated costs and a weak uranium market. Currently, Uranium City’s population stands at 91 individuals. However, investors contend that a genuine and growing global demand for the commodity presents a significant opportunity for Canada. NexGen expects that construction on its mine, which is awaiting approval from Canada’s federal nuclear regulator, will commence early next year. Mr. Gitzel reports that approximately 100 other companies are currently engaged in active exploration for deposits in Saskatchewan. The timeline for its market availability remains uncertain. Mr. Gitzel warned that some companies have previously initiated explorations that did not progress to the production phase. The process for obtaining approval for mining projects in Canada can also be protracted. He stated, “Building a mine is going to take five to 10 years, and so far, the only ones in operation are ours, so we will wait and see how it plays out.” For Mr. Curyer, it is imperative that his project and others are completed within the next four years, benefiting both Canada and the global community. He concluded, “Otherwise, there is going to be a shortage in uranium, and that will subsequently impact power prices.”