Donald Trump’s Second Presidency: Implications for Africa’s Trade, Aid, and Security

Upon the confirmation of Donald Trump securing the US presidency for a second term, African leaders commenced sending their felicitations via social media. Zimbabwean President Emmerson Mnangagwa stated, “Zimbabwe stands ready to work with you,” signaling a desire for renewed diplomatic relations. Concurrently, Nigeria’s Bola Tinubu voiced optimism that Trump’s next tenure would foster “reciprocal economic and development partnerships between Africa and the United States.” The question arises whether a second Trump administration will benefit the African continent. During his initial term in the White House, detractors criticized him for disregarding Africa, citing reductions in certain funding, restrictions on immigration, and alleged remarks referring to some African nations as “shithole countries.” Nevertheless, he also initiated programs designed to boost investment in Africa, which continue to function three years post his departure from office. Considering the current global environment, how might his approach to Africa evolve? W Gyude Moore, a fellow at the Center for Global Development and a former Liberian minister, informed the BBC that Joe Biden’s departing administration “tried really hard to create an impression that Africa was a valued and important partner.” Mr. Moore noted that Biden faced challenges in translating this commitment into significant agreements and collaborations, yet emphasized that his Africa strategy was not without results. An example of success was the US investment in the Lobito Corridor, a railway spanning Angola, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Zambia, intended for the conveyance of vital raw materials. In 2023, the US reported investments exceeding $22bn since Biden assumed office. However, apprehensions exist that Trump could reverse these investment and trade initiatives. The incoming president exhibits a more protectionist and isolationist perspective compared to Biden, as evidenced by “America First,” a prominent slogan from his initial term. A significant point of concern is the African Growth and Opportunity Act (Agoa), which has permitted qualifying African nations to export certain goods to the US without tariffs since 2000. During his prior administration, Trump indicated that the program would not be extended upon its expiration in 2025. Furthermore, throughout his 2024 campaign, he committed to imposing a universal 10% income tariff on all imported goods. Such a measure would increase the cost of foreign products, potentially leading to reduced sales for African exporters in the substantial US market. Many analysts in South Africa, a major exporter under the Agoa agreement, have forecasted that the termination of Agoa could substantially affect the economy. Conversely, the US think-tank the Brookings Institution projects that South Africa’s GDP would decrease by “just 0.06%.” This is attributed in part to the fact that numerous South African exports to the US, including minerals and metal, do not currently receive Agoa benefits, according to the institution. Despite his reservations about Agoa, Trump acknowledged the necessity of preserving a degree of partnership to counteract China’s expanding economic sway in Africa. In 2018, the Trump administration introduced Prosper Africa, an initiative supporting US companies interested in African investments, and the Development Finance Corporation (DFC), which finances development projects globally, including in Africa. Biden maintained both programs after assuming office, and the DFC reports having invested over $10bn (£8bn) in Africa to date. Considering China’s continued significant presence in Africa and Trump’s personal initiation of these policies, he is expected to reconsider before discontinuing them. The majority of Africa’s aid originates from the US, which reported contributions of nearly $3.7bn during the current financial year. However, Trump’s previous administration, according to various reports, consistently proposed reductions in global foreign aid. Congress, where foreign aid enjoyed bipartisan backing, opposed these proposed cuts. The Council on Foreign Relations, a Washington-based think-tank, stated that if these cuts had been enacted, “traditional US policies with respect to health, democracy promotion, and security assistance in Africa would have been eviscerated.” Nevertheless, there might be less resistance to aid reductions if Republicans achieve a substantial majority in Congress after Tuesday’s elections. The party has already secured the Senate, which is Congress’s upper chamber, and presently holds a majority in the House of Representatives, the lower chamber. Concerns also exist that Trump could discontinue Pepfar, a long-standing US program that has allocated substantial funds to combat HIV in Africa. Last year, Republican legislators voiced considerable opposition to Pepfar, claiming the program facilitated abortion services. While it received a short-term extension until March of the following year, Trump, recognized for his anti-abortion stance, might terminate this temporary continuation. Trump’s position on illegal immigration is unambiguous; during his 2024 campaign, he pledged to deport one million individuals lacking legal authorization to reside in the United States. This is relevant to Africa because, based on US Customs and Border Protection data, approximately 13,000 African migrants were documented at the US-Mexico border in 2022. By 2023, this number had quadrupled to 58,000. Some of these individuals report fleeing conflict, persecution, and economic hardship. Such a policy would not mark his initial significant anti-immigration action. During his first term, Trump implemented measures that restricted immigration from various African nations, such as Nigeria, Eritrea, Sudan, and Tanzania. The Kenyan news outlet Taifo Leo reported that approximately 160,000 migrants from the East African country are apprehensive about potential discrimination under a Trump presidency. During Trump’s absence from the presidency, Russia has increased its engagement in Africa. A primary method for this has been the provision of military personnel and weaponry to nations affected by jihadist militants, including Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso. Russia’s growing influence has caused concern in the US, given their historical rivalry. The question arises whether Trump will extend assistance to African nations to counter Russia’s presence. Mr. Moore informed the BBC that “Even though the national security architecture in the United States perceives Russia as a threat, Trump personally has not acted as if he perceives Russia as a threat.” Speculation suggests that Trump’s relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin may be closer than publicly acknowledged. Nonetheless, Trump has previously intervened to assist Nigeria in its fight against Boko Haram, an Islamist militant group that has afflicted the West African nation for 15 years. Former lawmaker Ehiozuwa Johnson Agbonayinmma told the Nigerian news outlet The Vanguard, “During [former President Barack] Obama’s tenure, Nigerian-Americans advocated tirelessly for him, yet he declined Nigeria’s requests for arms. When our communities in northern Nigeria were under attack by Boko Haram, it was Trump who ultimately approved the purchase of Tucano jets, allowing us to strengthen our defences.” The ongoing civil war in Sudan, which has persisted for 18 months and resulted in tens of thousands of fatalities, also presents a challenge. Mr. Moore commented, “Trump is very transactional,” adding, “I’m really doubtful that the Trump administration is going to care more about what’s happening in Sudan than, say, the Biden administration did.” Ultimately, the precise focus of Trump’s agenda once in office remains uncertain. As Mr. Moore observed, “Trump is very unorthodox in how he does everything. So one has to be pretty open to new things, not necessarily good things, but new things happening.”