Satellite Imagery Indicates Russian Equipment Movement at Syrian Bases

Analysts suggest that Russia is relocating a substantial volume of military equipment within Syria, indicating potential preparations for a partial withdrawal. Satellite imagery confirms an accumulation of military vehicles at a Russian-managed port and airbase situated in western Syria. Furthermore, transport aircraft have reportedly arrived in and departed from the nation over recent days. BBC Verify has also pinpointed the locations of videos depicting long convoys of Russian military trucks proceeding northward towards these installations. According to The Institute for the Study of War, this activity points to preparations for either a reduction or a full withdrawal of Russian troops. The Washington-based think tank further noted that the relocation of military vehicles to its bases could serve as a precautionary step during Moscow’s ongoing negotiations with the new administration in Damascus. Russia maintained a considerable military presence in Syria throughout Bashar al-Assad’s tenure, assisting him in retaining authority following the commencement of the civil war in 2011. Its two primary bases are the port at Tartous, which the Soviet Union established in the 1970s and Russia subsequently expanded and modernized in 2012, and the airbase at Hmeimim, operational since 2015 and utilized for conducting air strikes across Syria to support Assad. Both locations have evolved into crucial strategic assets for Russia, facilitating improved access to the Middle East, North Africa, and the Mediterranean Sea. Nevertheless, the collapse of Assad’s government has prompted inquiries regarding Russia’s continued presence in Syria. Moscow is currently engaged in negotiations with the new governing authority. On Monday, Dmitry Peskov, the Kremlin press secretary, stated that “no final decisions” had been made and that Russia was “in contact with representatives of the forces that now control the situation in [Syria]”. BBC Verify has been observing operations at Hmeimim air base through Planet Labs satellite imagery. Indications of ongoing activity, including large military transport aircraft, are evident. On Friday, two substantial Antonov An-124 aircraft, potentially employed for relocating assets from Syria, were observed at the base. These aircraft had departed by Tuesday, yet two large planes were once more present at the base by Wednesday morning. Additional imagery captured by Maxar Technologies on Sunday displays numerous military vehicles positioned at the airfield adjacent to a Russian-manufactured Ilyushin Il-76 military transport plane, which has the potential for use in evacuations. BBC Verify monitored a large Russian Antonov An-124 from Tuesday via the plane tracking website Flightradar24. Its publicly accessible tracker indicated its presence in Russian airspace, moving towards Syria. Subsequently, it vanished from Flightradar24 off the Syrian coast, to the west of Hmeimim air base, presumably due to its public tracker being deactivated. It was then observed heading northward again six hours later. David Heathcote, an intelligence manager at McKenzie Intelligence, commented that the swift downfall of the Assad government implied Russia likely lacked a pre-existing plan for resource evacuation. He characterized the activity at Hmeimim air base as “unusual,” proposing that Russia was storing certain resources at the base while simultaneously preparing to withdraw some equipment and personnel from Syria. Tayfun Ozberk, a former naval officer and defence analyst, concurred that the visual evidence pointed to “early stages of a Russian withdrawal from Syria, with clear signs of an air-based evacuation.” Mr. Ozberk stated, “The presence of Il-76 aircraft, the absence of Russian vessels at Tartous, and the organised pre-staging of vehicles and equipment support this conclusion.” Last week, BBC Verify reported that Russian warships had departed the port at Tartous, with analysts speculating they were temporarily positioned in international waters. These vessels have not reappeared; however, satellite images indicate that over 100 military vehicles have reached the base in recent days. Mr. Heathcote suggested that the vehicles were probably being readied for evacuation, though he deemed an immediate departure improbable given the lack of loading ramps and cranes. Furthermore, recent video footage displayed extensive convoys of Russian vehicles in transit, implying their redirection from other Russian positions throughout the country. BBC Verify identified the location of these videos on a primary highway, indicating their movement northward towards the bases. An 80-second video posted on X depicts a lengthy procession of Russian vehicles, pinpointed to a location 30km (18.6 miles) south of Homs. A separate video revealed a column of Russian vehicles on the identical highway further south, 70km (43 miles) outside Damascus. Anton Mardasov, a non-resident scholar in the Middle East Institute’s Syria programme, stated, “Russia is now withdrawing units and military equipment that were deployed in nearly a hundred strongholds across the country before the fall of Damascus.” Additional reporting was provided by Ned Davies.