Nations League Group Stage Concludes, Setting Stage for Knockouts and Play-offs

The group stage of the redesigned Nations League has concluded. The competition is set to recommence in March 2025, featuring two-legged quarter-finals alongside promotion and relegation play-offs. This overview details the teams that have advanced to the quarter-finals, those that have secured promotion or faced relegation, and the remaining decisions. Within League A, the Nations League’s premier division, the top two teams from each of the four groups will proceed to the two-legged quarter-finals, scheduled for March. The eight nations that have qualified for this subsequent stage are Croatia, Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Portugal, and Spain. The draw for these quarter-final matchups is scheduled for Friday, November 22, in Nyon, Switzerland. Victors of these quarter-final encounters will advance to the Nations League Finals tournament, which will include semi-finals and a final held in June. Teams that concluded at the top of their respective Nations League Groups B, C, and D have all achieved automatic promotion. These include: Promoted to League A: Czech Republic, England, Norway, and Wales. Promoted to League B: North Macedonia, Northern Ireland, Sweden, and either Romania or Kosovo. Promoted to League C: Moldova and San Marino. Conversely, teams finishing at the bottom of League A and B face relegation to League B and C, respectively. The two teams with the poorest records at the bottom of League C are relegated to League D. The relegated teams are: Relegated to League B: Bosnia and Herzegovina, Israel, Poland, and Switzerland. Relegated to League C: Albania, Finland, Kazakhstan, and Montenegro. Relegated to League D: Azerbaijan and Lithuania. Promotion/relegation play-offs are scheduled for March. These fixtures involve third-placed teams from League A competing in two-legged ties against second-placed teams from League B, with the winners earning a spot in League A. Similarly, third-placed teams in League B will play against second-placed teams in League C, with the victors securing their position in League B. Lastly, the two nations finishing bottom of League C with the best records will compete against the runners-up of League D. The teams participating in these play-offs are: League A/B play-offs: Austria, Belgium, Greece, Hungary, Scotland, Serbia, Turkey, and Ukraine. League B/C play-offs: Armenia, Bulgaria, Georgia, Iceland, Kosovo or Romania, Republic of Ireland, Slovakia, and Slovenia. League C/D play-offs: Gibraltar, Latvia, Luxembourg, and Malta. England secured automatic promotion to League A by winning their League B group, thus avoiding involvement in the next phase of the Nations League. Scotland, conversely, will participate in play-offs next year with the aim of maintaining their League A status. Wales also achieved promotion from League B to League A by surpassing Turkey in their concluding match, meaning they, like England, will not be part of the March fixtures. Northern Ireland, having won their League C group, has been promoted to League B. Four teams will secure a World Cup play-off berth through the Nations League. These will be the four highest-ranked group winners who do not otherwise finish among the top two in their respective World Cup qualifying groups next year. Given that teams in the top Nations League division, and many in the second tier, are highly probable to qualify for the World Cup via European qualifying, this mechanism provides an additional incentive for teams in Leagues B and C. England, by topping Group B2, is highly likely to have secured a World Cup play-off position, a similar scenario applies to Group B4 winners Wales. Northern Ireland’s first-place finish in C3 grants them at least a possibility, whereas Scotland is not currently in contention for a World Cup play-off spot via the Nations League. The four teams qualifying for the play-offs through the Nations League will join the 12 teams that finish second in their World Cup qualifying groups, competing for four available spots in the 2026 tournament. World Cup qualifying group seedings will primarily be determined by FIFA world rankings, rather than Nations League performance. An exception to this rule is that the top seeds will be selected from a pool consisting of teams that conclude in the top two positions of each League A group, supplemented by the four highest-ranked nations according to world rankings. England’s global ranking of fourth, and third in Europe, indicates a strong likelihood of them being top seeds, notwithstanding their absence from League A.