Met Office defends Storm Bert warning amidst criticism

A senior representative from the Met Office stated that pre-Storm Bert impact assessments failed to predict the extent of the flooding experienced in Wales last month. Following the inundation of over 700 Welsh properties, First Minister Eluned Morgan was one of several individuals who called for improved warning systems. On Wednesday, Met Office director Simon Brown informed Members of Parliament that the “relatively dry weather two weeks before Storm Bert” had “generally meant soil conditions had dried out,” which led to the assumption that “there wasn’t going to be as much flooding.” Nevertheless, Mr Brown confirmed that the agency is currently assessing the suitability of the yellow weather warning issued prior to the storm. Members of Parliament are conducting an investigation into Wales’ readiness for flooding events, prompted by Storm Bert and Storm Darragh. Ruth Jones, the Labour MP for Newport West and Islwyn and chair of the Welsh Affairs Committee, observed that the two storms seemed to have been “treated quite differently” within Wales. She posed the question: “Were the warnings that were issued for Storm Bert adequate to allow people to protect themselves?” Mr Brown stated: “For Storm Bert we had a two week period of relatively dry weather, which generally meant soil conditions had dried out.” He continued: “And actually, when we did the impact assessment on Storm Bert, meteorologically there was a lot of rain but the antecedal soil conditions suggested there wasn’t going to be as much flooding.” He further explained that Storm Darragh presented a different scenario, preceded by extensive wet weather and characterized by stronger winds. Jeremy Parr, who leads flood incident risk management at Natural Resources Wales (NRW), informed MPs that Storm Bert resulted in “extensive damage,” with more than 700 Welsh properties experiencing flooding. He clarified that NRW’s function involves providing “the signal” to collaborating organizations ahead of time. However, he noted: “But with Storm Bert there was quite a bit of uncertainty and low confidence in the forecast.” Mr Parr acknowledged that “that can happen” and described forecasting weather patterns as a “complicated thing.” He also mentioned that Storm Bert saw a “rapid escalation” on the Saturday. Mr Parr cautioned the committee that as global warming increases the probability of extreme weather events, designated areas are required to accommodate “huge quantities of water” to mitigate societal damage. He referred to these as “sacrificial land in some locations so that communities don’t flood downstream, for example.” He elaborated: “That’s not particularly easy, is it, in terms of that that land is owned by somebody, what’s the value of the land?” He recalled: “I remember in Storm Dennis it was eight hundred cubic metres per second which was coming down the river. “That’s enough water to fill an Olympic size swimming pool every three seconds, continuously coming. “It’s huge quantities of water, so we do need to use all the levers at our disposal, working across all organisations to work out how to really look after such huge quantities of water in catchments.” Mr Parr suggested that individuals should assume greater “personal ownership” regarding flood risks to their properties and that there must be an “acceptance of the risk increasing in future.” He informed the committee that the adoption of existing flood warning services was low, attributing this to “denial” and the “impact on insurance.” He emphasized: “You need to think it might happen, and we all know that when it does happen the speed at which it can happen is incredible, especially now with more and more extreme weather events.” He advised: “So one of the things we really encourage people to do is have that conversation in your house, at home – what would we do if it were to happen to us? “Where would we go to? What property would we move? Should we move our car in advance? What about those valuable things? All of those things people need to think about in advance.” Addressing criticism directed at Met Office warnings, Mr Brown stated: “This isn’t just about the warning system, this is also about the responder community and what local communities do in terms of taking action. “In a Welsh government meeting, two weeks ago, I generally felt the impacts from that meeting were well understood by the responder community, they were well prepared to respond, and the local council Rhondda Cynon Taff actually said they prepared like it was an amber (warning).” However, he concluded: “Hindsight is a wonderful thing and we will certainly look at whether that weather warning was appropriate.” On Mill Street in Pontypridd town centre, sandbags remain available as local businesses seek explanations for the drain flooding, an issue they believe is resolvable. Rico Orsi, owner of the cafe Zucco, commented: “As a group of businesses we feel like sitting ducks really.” He added: “We are not over the worst of the winter so we feel vulnerable.” Mr Orsi asserted that the yellow weather warning issued ahead of Storm Bert was inadequate. He explained: “We get yellow weather warnings all the time.” He continued: “We just assumed it was going to be another bad day, we didn’t think there was going to be five feet of water coming into our shops and the devastation that all that led to.” Jayne Colman, proprietor of Martha’s Homestore on the same street, expressed that owners harbor “major concerns” about potential recurrent flooding, and she intends to implement protective measures for her establishment this evening. She stated that businesses had diligently prepared themselves and dismissed the notion that individuals should bear more personal responsibility for the issue. She remarked: “That is quite a shocking attitude – we have got a WhatsApp group, we communicate with each other on a daily basis about the rain, the weather warnings.” She concluded: “For outside agencies to feel we bury our heads in the sand is just outrageous really.” Additional reporting was provided by Adrian Browne and Nelli Bird. Copyright 2024 BBC. All rights reserved. The BBC bears no responsibility for the content found on external websites. Information regarding our external linking policy is available.