European Leaders Confront Trump’s Re-election at Budapest Summit

Donald Trump’s return to the White House is a central topic for European leaders, who are convening in Budapest, providing an opportune moment for discussions. His initial presidential term was marked by a significant decline in relations. He expressed displeasure regarding European nations’ contributions to their own security and was highly critical of the US trade deficit with Europe. Germany, a major EU power, appeared to be a particular target of his frustration on both these issues, as noted by former German Chancellor Angela Merkel. This raises questions about the implications of a future Trump presidency for the continent, especially concerning Ukraine. Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelensky is present in the Hungarian capital for a gathering of the European Political Community. This forum, conceived by French President Emmanuel Macron, was established after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine to facilitate joint discussions on continental issues. A primary concern is that the incoming US administration might reduce or halt the provision of American military assistance to Kyiv. The United States has been Ukraine’s largest individual donor, by a significant margin, and Europe would face difficulties in compensating for this shortfall. Trump previously asserted his ability to conclude the war with Russia within a single day. His stance on whether he desires Ukraine’s victory remains unclear. European leaders, including UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer, French President Emmanuel Macron, and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, have consistently committed to supporting Ukraine. Zelensky is expected to urge them on Thursday to honor their pledges. Kyiv’s situation appears challenging. Beyond the uncertain future of US military aid, there is also doubt surrounding Germany, Ukraine’s second largest donor, following the collapse of its three-party coalition government late on Wednesday. Furthermore, the host of Thursday’s meeting is Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orban, a known admirer of Trump. Orban is also recognized for his strong connections to Moscow, his hesitation to implement sanctions against Russia, and his reluctance to supply self-defense weapons to Ukraine. He has frequently urged the EU to call for an “unconditional and immediate ceasefire” between Ukraine and Russia, a position that diverges from the current insistence among Ukraine’s Western allies that Kyiv should determine its own conditions. Orban characterizes Trump as belonging to what he terms his “pro-peace” camp. Despite these factors, President Zelensky and other attendees in Budapest this Thursday aim to preserve amicable relations with the new Trump administration for as long as feasible. The predominantly effusive congratulatory messages from European leaders on social media underscored this intention. However, Trump will be aware that the majority of these leaders had supported his Democratic rival for the presidency, Kamala Harris. The US electoral contest was consistently anticipated to be close, and EU officials assert a greater readiness for Trump 2.0 than in 2016, when his victory caught them off guard. Nevertheless, Trump’s isolationist tendencies continue to be a significant concern for Europe. The continent has relied on the US for security since the conclusion of World War Two, seeking protection from Russian expansionism and assistance in defending Ukraine. A challenge arises from Trump’s known aversion to Nato, the transatlantic military alliance. Trade represents another apprehension, particularly for the EU, given that the US is its largest trade partner. However, Trump adheres to protectionist policies, having expressed a preference for imposing tariffs on imports. This situation poses a negative outlook for Europe’s already slow-growing economies, such as export-dependent Germany and its struggling automobile sector. The European Commission indicates its preparedness for retaliatory measures if necessary, but would prefer to avoid engaging in a trade conflict with Trump. Unity presents an additional point of contention. Trump, whose “America First” policy resembles the nationalist agendas promoted by Russia’s Vladimir Putin and China’s Xi Jinping on the global stage, would likely prefer not to confront a robust, unified Europe. A strategy of “divide and rule” aligns with this preference. Viktor Orban is not the sole significant supporter of Trump present; Slovakia’s prime minister and, to some degree, Italy’s premier also share this inclination. Their alignment with Trump creates a divergence from the majority of other leaders. Brussels is apprehensive that other EU member states might now hasten to establish favorable bilateral relations with Trump, potentially undermining unity and weakening the bloc. However, an unnamed EU diplomat, who requested anonymity to speak candidly, suggested that the opposite outcome is also possible. “We in Brussels angst-ed about Brexit at the time,” the diplomat stated. “We thought other member states would follow the UK out the EU door. But the reverse happened. EU countries melded together more through the Brexit process. Donald Trump might have the same effect on us. Drive us closer together. Force us to be more self-reliant.” Shortly before the US election day, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, a prominent former figure in Brussels, declared on X: “The future of Europe no longer depends on presidential elections in the US, but primarily on Europe itself.” This remains uncertain. An alternative perspective, held by some traditional politicians in Europe, suggests that Trump’s victory could empower right-wing nationalists closer to home. These European populists echo his conviction that they represent the genuine voice of voters, expressing discontent with the economy, immigration, and the condition of their nations, and advocating for immediate change.