Global Progress on Climate Change: An Assessment

Scientists, politicians, and world leaders are convening at the annual UN climate summit, COP29, in Azerbaijan, during what is projected to be the warmest year on record. The question arises: what advancements have nations achieved in addressing climate change? Despite constructive actions taken by certain nations, such as the UK and the EU, to reduce reliance on the energy sources primarily responsible for global warming, the consumption of fossil fuels continues to increase. During the COP28 summit held last year in the United Arab Emirates, participating countries reached an accord to “transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems”. This marked the initial instance where the global community explicitly targeted coal, oil, and gas. These substances are the principal contributors to climate change, as their combustion for energy releases carbon dioxide (CO2), which warms the planet. Nonetheless, CO2 emissions stemming from fossil fuels are anticipated to hit an unprecedented peak in 2024, reaching 37.4bn tonnes, an increase of 0.8% from 2023, as per findings from the international Global Carbon Project team. Prof Pierre Friedlingstein of the University of Exeter, the lead author, stated, “The impacts of climate change are becoming increasingly dramatic, yet we still see no sign that burning of fossil fuels has peaked.” Certain indicators of advancement have emerged. The UK decommissioned its final operational coal power station in September, demonstrating that significant economies can maintain electricity supply without relying on the most polluting fossil fuel. Within the EU, the proportion of electricity derived from coal, oil, and gas achieved its lowest point earlier this year. However, numerous nations continue to sanction new fossil fuel initiatives. Among the world’s largest economies, China represents a significant contributor to this trend, though it is not unique in this regard. This situation persists despite United Nations warnings indicating that if all coal, oil, and gas from current and developing projects were combusted, global temperatures would likely increase substantially beyond the internationally established goal of 1.5C. Energy sources from renewable origins, such as wind and solar, are experiencing rapid expansion, and their costs have decreased significantly over the last ten years. Last year, nations committed to tripling the capacity of these ‘renewables’ by 2030. The underlying principle is that these environmentally friendly sources ought to begin replacing polluting fossil fuels within the electricity grid, thereby lowering CO2 emissions even as the demand for electricity rises. Presently, the International Energy Agency (IEA) anticipates that worldwide renewable capacity will expand by 2.7 times by 2030 relative to its 2022 baseline – indicating it is not precisely aligned with a threefold increase, but approaching it. The expectation is that economic factors, alongside climate policy, could facilitate an even quicker expansion of renewables. Prof Joeri Rogelj of Imperial College London stated, “In many cases and for many countries, renewable energy is already the cheapest and the economically sane option for producing energy.” The IEA projects that China alone will contribute over half of the increase in global renewable capacity by 2030. Nevertheless, renewables are also poised for rapid growth in the EU, US, India, and the UK. Energy storage solutions, including batteries, are crucial for the widespread adoption of renewables; unlike a power station fueled by fossil fuels, which can be activated on demand, wind patterns are inconsistent, and solar availability fluctuates. The proliferation of electric vehicles (EVs) is accelerating, primarily driven by China, yet adoption rates differ significantly across nations. The UN identifies EVs as the primary method for mitigating planet-warming emissions from road transportation. This is due to their ability to operate on clean electricity instead of directly consuming fossil fuels. The pricing of EVs exhibits substantial variation among countries. In China, the IEA calculates that over 60% of electric cars sold in 2023 were already more affordable than their gasoline or diesel counterparts, partly attributable to government incentives for the industry, which encourages broader adoption. Conversely, in other areas, electric cars have historically carried a higher price tag but are progressively becoming more economical. For instance, in the UK, the recent surge in EV sales is partially attributed to mandatory government objectives, as explained by Colin Walker, head of transport at the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit. He remarked, “As prices are driven down, more families are able to access the savings that come from electric driving.” Deforestation in Brazil’s Amazon rainforest experienced a notable decline in 2023; however, the global community is considerably behind schedule in achieving its objective of stopping it by 2030, as reported by the World Resources Institute. Some positive indicators have emerged. Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva returned to office in 2023, reaffirming his commitment to that objective and pledging to address tree depletion. His predecessor, Jair Bolsonaro, had substantially diminished legal safeguards for the forest. This area has historically served to mitigate further global warming by absorbing a portion of the carbon dioxide generated by human endeavors. However, apprehension exists that this trend is shifting due to tree eradication and the exacerbated impacts of drought, intensified by climate change. Deforestation intensified in other Amazonian territories, notably in the Bolivian section. Mikaela Weisse, Global Forest Watch Director at the World Resources Institute, stated, “We must learn from the countries that are successfully slowing deforestation.” Claudio Angelo of Brazil’s Climate Observatory indicated that for his nation, although punitive actions against tree felling had proven effective, it was equally vital to emphasize the advancement of practices such as sustainable agriculture. He commented, “Brazil has been very good at the stick so far, but with the carrot we haven’t been that good.” Despite numerous constructive measures implemented, the overarching statistics concerning emissions regrettably show little alteration. A recent United Nations report cautioned that prevailing policies are steering the world towards approximately 3C of warming by the century’s end. Other entities have presented comparable projections. This trajectory significantly surpasses the objective of restricting long-term warming to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels, an agreement reached by almost 200 nations in Paris in 2015. The UN asserts that the 1.5C objective remains “technically possible”, provided there are substantial reductions in emissions within the coming decade. The recent US election has additionally presented difficulties in fostering global consensus on new climate objectives. Incoming president Donald Trump has committed to withdrawing the US from the Paris climate agreement and advocating for increased oil and gas extraction with the phrase “drill, baby, drill”. This development constitutes “a major blow to global climate action,” as stated by Christiana Figueres, the former UN climate chief. She added, “But it cannot and will not halt the changes under way to decarbonise the economy and meet the goals of the Paris agreement.” Copyright 2024 BBC. All rights reserved. The BBC disclaims responsibility for the content of external websites. Information regarding our external linking policy is available.