Experts Anticipate Significant Setback for Climate Action Following Trump’s Election

According to experts, the re-election of Donald Trump to the presidency is anticipated to severely hinder climate change initiatives in the immediate future, though its long-range consequences remain less clear. As global leaders prepare to convene next week for COP29, the most recent round of UN climate negotiations, Mr. Trump’s electoral success is expected to be perceived as a substantial impediment to advancements in both reducing emissions and securing financial aid for developing nations. The incoming US president is recognized as a climate skeptic, having previously labeled endeavors to promote renewable energy as a “scam.” However, given the robust establishment of renewable energy in the United States and widespread public backing for wind and solar power, Mr. Trump’s potential initiatives to prioritize oil and gas could prove less impactful. Although climate change was not a prominent issue in the recent electoral campaign, the prospective actions of the Trump administration during this term might carry considerably greater weight than those taken in 2017. At that time, he declared the United States’ intention to withdraw from the Paris climate agreement, which stands as the United Nations’ most crucial framework for addressing climate change. This accord marked the first instance where nearly all global nations consented to reduce greenhouse gas emissions contributing to global warming. Nevertheless, the immediate repercussions of Mr. Trump’s decision were constrained. The provisions of the treaty stipulated that the US could not formally exit until November 2020, merely months prior to the conclusion of his previous term. Should Mr. Trump initiate another withdrawal, the United States would be fully disengaged after a waiting period of just one year. This would afford him a three-year window to pursue his own agenda, free from obligations to report to or abide by the United Nations’ regulations. Even though President Joe Biden’s representatives will attend the upcoming COP discussions in Azerbaijan, any agreements they reach will not be enforceable for the incoming Trump administration. Prof. Richard Klein, a climate change policy specialist at the Stockholm Environment Institute, stated, “The US at this COP is not just a lame duck, it’s a dead duck.” He added, “They can’t commit to anything and that means that countries like China will not want to commit to anything.” Over recent years, affluent nations including the US, UK, and EU member states have sought to augment financial resources for developing countries to address climate change. Concurrently, they have maintained that major developing economies should also contribute. Prof. Klein remarked, “The US basically wanted to have China cough up some money for that fund as well. Now they won’t be able to do that. That leaves China off the hook.” Climate scientists assert that developing nations require billions of dollars in additional investment to achieve net-zero status, thereby ceasing their contribution to climate change, and to mitigate the impacts of escalating temperatures. Although the United States could potentially withdraw from the Paris Agreement swiftly, Mr. Trump would nonetheless remain subject to other international initiatives aimed at combating climate change. Reports indicate that certain proponents of his also advocate for disengaging from these additional efforts. Some have called for a full detachment from UN climate initiatives, encouraging the president-elect to withdraw from the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, which is the foundational treaty for worldwide collaborative action against climate change. The US Senate ratified this convention almost unanimously in 1992. Legal scholars are uncertain about the procedure for exiting this treaty, but any attempt by the US to do so would be regarded as a severe blow to the concept of multilateral cooperation in addressing the planet’s most significant challenge. Beyond these prominent international maneuvers, the incoming Trump administration is anticipated to advocate for a substantial increase in domestic oil and gas exploration, reverse environmental safeguards, and levy significant tariffs on electric vehicles and solar panels imported from China. Dan Eberhart, CEO of oilfield services firm Canary LLC, informed Bloomberg News, “You are looking at, overall, a ‘drill baby drill’ philosophy.” He continued, “You are going to see offshore lease sales, you are going to see pipelines move much quicker, you are going to see fracking on federal lands and a mindset that is focused on lowering energy costs for consumers.” On Wednesday, turbine manufacturers experienced a notable decline in their share prices, fueled by concerns that a Trump presidency might lead to the cancellation of US offshore wind farm projects. Nevertheless, the long-term outlook remains ambiguous regarding whether the new president will reverse progress for coal, oil, and gas, or restrict the expansion of sustainable energy sources. To begin, he confronts opposition, particularly from within his own political party. The Inflation Reduction Act, enacted by President Biden, which could ultimately direct $1 trillion in expenditures towards green energy, has proven highly advantageous for Republican-represented districts. An analysis indicates that approximately 85% of these funds have been allocated to regions that voted for Republicans. Given that the International Energy Agency, an energy oversight body, reports global investment in clean technology in 2024 is twice that of coal, oil, and gas, the incoming US administration might be disinclined to divert this form of green investment to other, more receptive nations. Leaders in the climate sector express considerable confidence that the shift towards green energy will not be obstructed by the new Trump administration. Christiana Figueres, who previously served as the UN climate chief, stated, “The result from this election will be seen as a major blow to global climate action.” She added, “But it cannot and will not halt the changes under way to decarbonise the economy and meet the goals of the Paris agreement.”