Key Rebel Groups in Syria’s Evolving Landscape

Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, who leads the Islamist militant group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), is positioning himself as a central figure for Syria’s future following the Assad regime. The rapid and impactful offensive by his group, originating from their stronghold in the north-western province of Idlb and progressing through Aleppo, Hama, and Homs, was undeniably a catalyst for the significant developments over the last ten days. However, other rebel factions also emerged, and it is probable that this widespread opposition across Syria contributed to the regime’s swift downfall. Among these groups, some of which have now reached Damascus, are elements of the Free Syrian Army from southern towns and cities. These factions had been inactive for years, yet their rebellious spirit persisted. To the east, Kurdish-led forces capitalized on the Syrian army’s disintegration to secure full control of Deir El-Zour, a major city. In the extensive Syrian desert, remnants of the so-called Islamic State might also seek to exploit the current circumstances. Furthermore, in the far north near the Turkish border, the Syrian National Army, supported by Ankara, could emerge as an important participant in subsequent events. For years, al-Jolani has sought to transform the public image of his organization, moving it from a group feared for its ideological extremism to one that Syrians might accept as a practical alternative to the Assad government. HTS was established in 2011 as Jabhat al-Nusra, an official affiliate of al-Qaeda. Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, leader of the self-styled Islamic State (IS) group, also participated in its founding. It was considered among the most potent and lethal groups opposing President Assad. The UN, the US, Turkey, and other nations designated it as a terrorist organization, a classification it still holds. However, al-Jolani publicly severed ties with al-Qaeda, disbanded Jabhat al-Nusra, and formed a new entity. This organization adopted the name Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) following its merger with several other comparable groups a year subsequent to its formation. At the time, and to some extent still, questions persisted regarding whether HTS had fully disavowed its connections to al-Qaeda. Nevertheless, its recent communication over the last ten days has emphasized inclusivity and a disavowal of violence or retribution. Historically, the group has engaged in internal conflicts with other rebel and opposition factions. Such conflicts could recur. The conclusion of President Assad’s governance does not, at present, alter the existing internal divisions within Syria, where diverse groups maintain control over territories not under government authority. HTS’s attempts to gain legitimacy have also been undermined by accusations of human rights violations. The trajectory of Syria’s immediate political future will hinge not only on HTS’s objectives and capacities, alongside the rival demands and influences of other groups, but also on the role played by the significant external powers deeply involved in the nation’s recent past. These include, prominently, Iran and Russia, who supported President Assad, and Turkey, which has provided backing to rebel groups, as well as the US, which continues to maintain a military presence in the Kurdish-controlled eastern part of the country. These external actors are currently adapting their strategies, seeking to establish new strategic directions to advance their interests following the collapse of the Assad dynasty.