Russian Naval Vessels Depart Syrian Port Amid Uncertainty Over Moscow’s Regional Military Presence

Russian naval ships appear to have temporarily vacated their primary port in Syria, according to satellite imagery reviewed by BBC Verify. This movement occurs amidst ongoing questions surrounding Moscow’s military future in the country following the collapse of its ally, Bashar al-Assad. Images captured by Maxar on 10 December indicate that some vessels have departed the Tartous naval base since Sunday and are currently positioned offshore in the Mediterranean Sea. Concurrently, other photographs taken on the identical day illustrate continued activity at Hmeimim, Russia’s main airbase in Syria, with jets distinctly visible on the tarmac. On Monday, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated that Moscow intends to engage in discussions with the incoming authorities regarding Russia’s future military footprint. He informed reporters in Moscow, “Everything possible is now being done to get in touch with those involved in ensuring security and, of course, our military is also taking all the necessary precautions.” He had previously warned that it was “premature” to speculate on the bases’ future. He further told reporters, “You know that, of course, we maintain contacts with those who control the situation in Syria now. This is necessary because we have our bases there and our diplomatic office [embassy]. And of course, ensuring the safety and security of our facilities are of utmost importance.” The Tartous naval facility accommodates components of the Black Sea Fleet and serves as Russia’s sole hub for repair and replenishment in the Mediterranean. Established by the Soviet Union in the 1970s, Russia undertook its expansion and modernization in 2012, coinciding with the Kremlin’s intensified backing for President Assad’s administration. This base enables Russian vessels to operate in the Mediterranean without needing to transit the Turkish Straits to return to Black Sea ports. Furthermore, as a deep-water port, it possesses the capability to accommodate submarines from Moscow’s nuclear fleet, according to the US Naval Institute. The recently acquired satellite imagery indicates that Moscow has, at least for the time being, relocated its vessels from the port, with two guided missile frigates anchored approximately 13km (eight miles) from the Syrian coastline. The present location of the remaining fleet – which was visible in previous images – remains unknown. Moreover, it is uncertain if this departure signifies a permanent pullout from Tartous. Over recent weeks, satellite photographs have consistently depicted naval vessels entering and exiting the port. Mike Plunkett, an open-source defence intelligence analyst with the Janes organisation, observed that the Russian naval maneuvers seemed to have been “conducted to ensure that their ships are not vulnerable to attack.” He further stated, “Whether they are worried about attack from the Syrian rebels or collateral damage from any Israeli strike on Syrian assets in Tartus is unknown.” Frederik Van Lokeren, a former Belgian navy lieutenant and analyst, conveyed to BBC Verify that the Russian ships appeared to be in a state of suspended activity while Moscow considers its subsequent actions. Mr Van Lokeren commented, “They’re effectively in limbo at the moment, because they don’t quite know what’s going to happen.” He continued, “Obviously, since they’re lingering there, it seems that Russia is not willing to withdraw all its naval vessels out of the area just yet, which might be an indication that they’re negotiating with regional partners to see where they can redeploy these vessels.” Experts have theorized that should Russia be compelled to abandon the Tartous naval installation, it might relocate its forces to Tobruk in Libya. This area is under the command of the Kremlin-supported Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar and already contains several Russian airbases. However, a pullout from Tartous would incur substantial expenses, and Mr Van Lokeren pointed out that such a relocation would also position Russian ships nearer to Nato bases, thereby simplifying their tracking. He added that, at present, there is no evidence of Russia mobilizing the required naval resources to extract equipment from Tartous. Concurrently, since 2015, the Hmeimim air base has played a pivotal role in Russia’s military activities throughout the Middle East and Africa. It has served as a launchpad for severe air strikes against Syrian cities, bolstering the Assad regime, and has also facilitated the transport of military contractors to Africa. Satellite images examined by BBC Verify on 10 December revealed at least two substantial aircraft – identified by Janes as IL-76 transport aircraft – still parked on the base’s tarmac. Helicopters were also discernible at the base in the imagery. Janes further observes that air defence systems stationed at the location are still visible in the north-western section of the image. Dara Massicot, an analyst affiliated with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, posted on X on Sunday that any evacuation of the airbase would necessitate an extensive airlift operation, demanding significantly more aircraft than those currently visible in the satellite images. This implies that Moscow is not preparing for an immediate withdrawal. She wrote on X, “When Russian forces deployed to Syria in 2015, they flew almost 300 sorties in two weeks, and that was before base expansion.” She concluded, “A change signifying a major evacuation will be clear.” Notwithstanding the apparent state of suspension exhibited by Russian forces, the collapse of the Assad regime constitutes a significant setback for the Kremlin’s regional aspirations. During a visit to the Hmeimim air base in 2017, President Vladimir Putin articulated his intention for Moscow’s involvement to be a protracted endeavor. Commenting on the circumstances, Rybar, an influential pro-Kremlin military blogger, cautioned on Telegram that Russia’s regional power-projection efforts were in grave jeopardy. He concluded, “Russia’s military presence in the Middle East region is hanging by a thread.” Further reporting was provided by Paul Cusiac, with graphics created by Mark Edwards. For inquiries regarding BBC Verify investigations, please refer to the relevant section. Copyright 2024 BBC. All rights reserved. The BBC disclaims responsibility for the material found on external websites. Details concerning our policy on external links are available.