Reports indicate that forces loyal to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad are involved in intense fighting with rebel groups near the significant city of Hama. On Tuesday evening, a monitoring group stated that the Islamist militant organization Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and its allied factions had reached “at the gates of Hama”. However, by Wednesday, the same group reported that the military had recovered multiple villages during a counter-offensive supported by heavy air strikes. Syrian state media likewise reported that government troops had repelled rebels north of Hama, although the rebels refuted claims of any territorial losses in that area. Hama is situated 110km (70 miles) south of Aleppo, a city that rebels seized last week following the initiation of an unexpected offensive from their base in the north-west. Both the state-operated Sana news agency and the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), a UK-based monitoring organization, documented severe combat on Wednesday morning near Jabal Zain al-Abadin, a hill approximately 5km (3 miles) north-east of Hama. The SOHR indicated that these confrontations occurred after government forces initiated a counter-attack, successfully driving rebels back nearly 10km from the city and regaining control of two villages close to the hill. A representative for the rebel’s “Military Operations Division” alleged that the military was disseminating rumors to boost its troops’ morale and maintained that rebels retained control of all positions they had recently secured. Concurrently, an associated news channel reported the capture of an additional five villages east of Hama, along with a base belonging to the 25th Special Mission Forces Division. The SOHR reported on Tuesday that “major displacement” had occurred from Hama, a city with approximately 1 million residents, after rebels reached its periphery and several civilians sustained injuries from their shellfire. Wassim, a delivery driver residing in Hama, informed AFP news agency: “The sounds were really terrifying, and the continuous bombing could be clearly heard”. He further stated: “I’ll stay home because I have nowhere else to flee to.” The SOHR has reported that over 600 individuals, including 107 civilians, have died, and tens of thousands have been displaced since the rebel offensive commenced last Wednesday. The United Nations has voiced concern regarding the abrupt intensification of Syria’s destructive, 13-year civil war and cautioned that the circumstances are “extremely fluid and dangerous”. Special envoy Geir Pedersen informed the UN Security Council on Tuesday: “If we do not see de-escalation and a rapid move to a serious political process, involving the Syrian parties and the key international players, then I fear we will see a deepening of the crisis.” He added: “Syria will be in grave danger of further division, deterioration, and destruction.” President Assad has pledged to “crush” the rebels and alleged that Western powers are attempting to redraw the region’s map, while his principal allies, Russia and Iran, have extended their “unconditional support”. In recent days, Russian warplanes have increased their attacks on rebel-controlled territories, Iran-backed militias have deployed fighters to strengthen the government’s defensive positions near Hama, and Iran has declared its readiness to dispatch more forces to Syria if requested. Turkey, a supporter of the Syrian opposition that has denied allegations of its involvement in the HTS-led offensive, has pressed Assad to participate in a political process with the opposition to conclude Syria’s 13-year civil war. Meanwhile, Turkish-backed rebel factions have exploited the government’s withdrawal in the north by initiating a distinct offensive against a territorial enclave near Aleppo previously held by a Kurdish-led militia alliance, the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). Over half a million individuals have perished since the civil war began in 2011, following Assad’s government’s violent suppression of peaceful pro-democracy demonstrations. Prior to the commencement of the rebel offensive, the government had re-established control over Syria’s primary cities with assistance from Russia, Iran, and Iran-backed militias. Nevertheless, significant portions of the nation remained outside its authority. The final rebel stronghold was located in Aleppo and Idlib provinces, bordering Turkey, where over four million people resided, many of whom were displaced from government-controlled territories. This enclave was predominantly controlled by HTS, an organization designated as a terrorist entity by the UN, US, Turkey, and other nations, due to its former affiliation with al-Qaeda in Syria until it formally severed ties in 2016. Several allied rebel factions and jihadist groups were also stationed there, alongside Turkish-backed SNA factions and Turkish forces. In 2020, Turkey and Russia mediated a ceasefire to stop a government advance aimed at reclaiming the region. This resulted in a prolonged period of reduced violence, though intermittent clashes, air strikes, and shelling persisted. HTS and its allies declared last Wednesday that they had initiated an offensive to “deter aggression”, leveling accusations against the government and allied Iran-backed militias for intensifying attacks on civilians in the north-west. This offensive, however, occurred at a juncture when the government’s allies were engaged in other conflicts. The Iran-backed Lebanese group Hezbollah, which played a vital role in repelling rebels during the initial years of the war, has recently been impacted by Israel’s offensive in Lebanon. Furthermore, Israeli strikes have eliminated Iranian military commanders in Syria and diminished supply lines to pro-government militias in the area. Russia has also been diverted by the conflict in Ukraine. Mr. Pedersen estimated that rebels currently hold de facto control over territory encompassing an estimated 7 million people, with 2 million residing in Aleppo city.

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