Conservative Leadership Contest: Candidates’ Proposals for Scotland

The outcome of the competition to succeed Rishi Sunak as the Conservative leader is scheduled for announcement on Saturday, approximately four months following the electoral loss that led to his departure. This extensive selection process involved reducing the initial six candidates to two, achieved through multiple ballots cast by the party’s Members of Parliament. Subsequently, the final two contenders, Kemi Badenoch and Robert Jenrick, were subject to a ballot by party members, which concluded on Thursday. The incoming leader will confront the task of reuniting the party as it adapts to its role in opposition, and ultimately, of endeavoring to overcome Labour’s substantial majority in the upcoming election. However, while significant attention has been directed towards the candidates’ positions on subjects like immigration, economic policy, and strategies for restoring voter confidence, the question remains: what proposals do they have for Scotland, and what are the views of the party’s Scottish members regarding this contest? A considerable number of Conservative Members of the Scottish Parliament (MSPs) had supported Tom Tugendhat for the leadership until his elimination from the competition in fourth position. Certain Scottish Conservatives interviewed indicated that he was the candidate who “got” Scotland. His frequent visits and political views were perceived as aligning well with the Scottish branch of the party. A comparable level of public endorsement for either Badenoch or Jenrick has not materialized. Jenrick has received public support from two Scottish Members of Parliament, John Cooper and John Lamont, along with one Member of the Scottish Parliament. Badenoch, considered the leading contender, is supported by MP Andrew Bowie and four MSPs. An MSP commented that “the two we wanted most didn’t get there,” referencing Tom Tugendhat and James Cleverly, both of whom are regarded as more centrist options compared to Jenrick or Badenoch. The Scottish Conservatives have historically leaned towards being more small ‘C’ conservatives, whereas the two Westminster candidates appear focused on countering Nigel Farage’s Reform party. This dynamic could present challenges for the recently elected Scottish Conservative leader, Russell Findlay, who has stated his intention not to publicly endorse either candidate but to collaborate with the eventual victor. Both contenders have undertaken visits to Scotland and participated in virtual discussions with MSPs, though it was reported that one of Jenrick’s calls experienced low attendance. Among the Conservatives interviewed, there is discussion of a minor shift in support towards Kemi Badenoch among the MSP contingent. The discretion exercised by numerous MSPs regarding their vote is noteworthy. Some appear concerned about potentially endorsing a candidate who subsequently becomes unpopular, a phenomenon referred to as “the Truss effect.” One MP suggested the MSP group was “burned out” from the Scottish leadership election, while another contended that the UK leadership contest held less significance, as the UK leader would be inconsequential leading up to the 2026 Holyrood elections. Ouch. During an interview, Jenrick stated he would not grant additional powers to the Scottish government and affirmed his intention to withdraw the UK from the European Convention on Human Rights without the Scottish Parliament’s approval. He asserted that this was a reserved issue, solely for Westminster to determine. This position is contested, with three constitutional experts indicating that consent ought to be obtained, and a prominent Scottish Conservative cautioning that such an action would be “opening up a can of worms.” The Scottish government has declared it would “firmly oppose any attempt to leave” the convention. Does anyone feel a sense of nostalgia for constitutional debates? Jenrick further indicated that Scotland would receive no specific exemptions from his objective to legally decrease UK immigration to the tens of thousands, a long-standing Conservative goal that numerous prime ministers have found challenging to realize. However, he acknowledged the possibility of tailored programs for certain sectors experiencing skill shortages, such as fishing. He holds the view that sentiments regarding immigration prevalent in England are mirrored in Scotland, thus necessitating identical solutions. Regarding Kemi Badenoch, in an interview with my colleague Martin Geissler, she stated that immigration powers should not be devolved to Scotland, arguing that a distinct Scottish visa system would be “extremely difficult” to police. Nevertheless, she conceded that Scotland faced an issue with “not necessarily getting the skills it needs or wants.” Her proposed remedy involved increased training and greater internal migration from other regions of the UK to Scotland. Badenoch additionally asserted that the United Kingdom union was voluntary, yet she did not specify the process by which Scotland could depart should its electorate desire to. In her address to the Conservative conference, Badenoch discussed a “new blueprint” for the UK, encompassing a strategy that considered devolution alongside numerous other facets of the British state. When speaking with BBC Scotland News, she indicated that her approach to devolution would prioritize people over process, asserting that it should bring authority nearer to citizens, for example, at the local council tier. She voiced criticism of devolution in Scotland, Wales, and mayoral cities, stating that “it’s just more politicians” and that “devolution wasn’t just about having more politicians, it was about having better policies that delivered better outcomes.” She further remarked that “there’s no point devolving if you don’t get the very best people making the decisions.” Notwithstanding her statements, Badenoch acknowledged not having a prepared plan to address the issues she raised, indicating she would undertake that work once she became opposition leader. This represents a distinct strategic divergence from Jenrick. Throughout her leadership campaign, she has emphasized her qualifications in opposing the SNP, leveraging her background as Minister of Equalities and her objection to the Scottish government’s proposals for altering gender legislation. Ultimately, these plans were stopped after the UK government exercised veto powers to prevent the Gender Recognition Reform Bill from enacting into law, a position upheld by the Court of Session. Both contenders have expressed disapproval of net zero targets and the schedule for transitioning from oil and gas to renewable energy, as well as the associated employment implications. As the competition nears its conclusion, it is noteworthy that both campaigns appear to believe the race is tighter than current polls suggest – which presently place Badenoch in the lead – and concerns exist regarding potentially low voter participation. This might not be entirely unexpected, considering the party’s membership is accustomed to electing prime ministers rather than opposition leaders.