Lawrence Shankland’s Goal-Scoring Struggles: An Analysis of His Current Form

Lawrence Shankland experienced a seven-game league goal drought at the beginning of last season. In his debut season at Tynecastle, he became the first Hearts player since John Robertson to score 20 goals. During his second season, he was appointed club captain, scoring 31 times and becoming only the second Hearts player this century to reach the 50-goal milestone for the club. However, in the current campaign, after 15 matches across all competitions, he has recorded only one goal. This solitary goal against Ross County resulted from the ball deflecting off the 29-year-old before entering the net. An examination of Shankland’s current performance reveals that the Scotland striker is still generating scoring opportunities but is failing to convert them. His expected goals (xG) stand at 3.5, yet only 24% of his attempts have been on target. On average, he takes 3.9 shots per game, but his conversion rate is a mere 2.4%. In contrast, last season, Shankland’s individual xG was 17.1, but his league total of 24 goals indicated a significant overperformance of this metric. He achieved this with 37% of his shots on target, a figure that has seen a notable decline this term. While he attempted a similar number of shots per game last season, at 3.8, his conversion rate was considerably higher at 18%. Among the league’s leading scorers last season, only Theo Bair and James Tavernier (with some of Tavernier’s goals being penalties) recorded superior conversion rates. Shankland missed nine significant scoring opportunities last season. This campaign, after 11 matches, he has already missed five. While attributing Hearts’ struggles this season solely to the captain’s underperformance would be an oversimplification, it undeniably contributes to the team’s difficulties. Last season, Hearts scored 68 goals, with Shankland accounting for 46% of them. This highlights a significant dependence on their key player for goal production, and when he fails to deliver, Hearts experience considerable setbacks, a point Steven Naismith can attest to. Neil Critchley is also aware of this situation. On Wednesday night, Hearts frequently pushed Kilmarnock back into their own penalty area, dominating possession, but they often struggled to convert this dominance into distinct scoring chances. Critchley’s optimism stems from his belief that Shankland possesses goal-scoring ability. The challenge for him is to maximize the player’s potential, which, if successful, could enable the Gorgie side to move away from the bottom of the league standings and ascend the table.