Northern Ireland’s Employment Reaches Peak, Growth Moderates

Official data indicates that Northern Ireland has achieved an unprecedented level of employment, though the pace of expansion appears to be stabilizing. According to the Quarterly Employment Survey (QES), the region recorded 831,780 employee positions in September, marking a rise of over 9,000 jobs compared to the previous year’s corresponding period. The QES gathers information from approximately 6,000 businesses, encompassing all employers with at least 25 staff members and all entities within the public sector. The survey revealed job creation across all primary economic sectors both throughout the year and specifically in the third quarter. The majority of annual job expansion occurred in the services and construction industries, which contributed approximately 5,000 and 3,000 new positions, respectively. The manufacturing sector saw an increase of 330 jobs, while other industrial sectors collectively gained an additional 450 positions. However, a distinct analysis utilizing HMRC payroll figures indicates a potential stagnation in job creation since the summer period. This data illustrates an increase in payrolled jobs from 799,000 to slightly over 806,000 between January and July, followed by virtually no growth from July to November. It is noted that the QES and HMRC report differing absolute figures due to their measurement of somewhat distinct metrics. Concurrently, Danske Bank projects that the Northern Ireland economy will have expanded by merely 1.1% this year, with an anticipated acceleration to 1.4% growth in the coming year. This projection is more conservative compared to the forecast released earlier this month by the Ulster University Economic Policy Centre (UUEPC), which predicted a 1.9% growth for the current year and 1.5% for the next. Conor Lambe, Chief Economist & Head of Strategy at Danske Bank, stated: “Looking forward into 2025, we expect the pace of growth to increase as closer to target rates of inflation and continued loosening of monetary policy provide some support to consumer expenditure.” He added: “The measures announced in the Budget are also likely to lead to higher levels of government spending.” Lambe further commented: “However, despite expectations of continued easing, Bank of England Bank Rate is still expected to remain relatively high and the increase in tax announced within the Budget is also likely to lead to challenges for businesses.”