Ukraine’s Nuclear Disarmament: A Reassessment Thirty Years On

Beneath overcast skies and a light covering of snow, imposing grey and green remnants from the Cold War serve as reminders of Ukraine’s Soviet heritage. Missiles, their launchers, and transporters stand as memorials to a period when Ukraine held a crucial position in the Soviet Union’s nuclear weapons program – its ultimate defense mechanism. From beneath the partially lifted concrete and steel cover of a silo, a massive intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) is partially visible. However, this missile is a replica, showing cracks and mold. For nearly three decades, the silo has been filled with debris. The entire extensive facility, situated near the central Ukrainian city of Pervomais’k, has long since been converted into a museum. As an independent Ukraine emerged from Moscow’s influence in the early 1990s, Kyiv decided to abandon nuclear weapons. Yet, almost three years after Russia’s full-scale invasion, and with no definitive agreement among allies on how to ensure Ukraine’s security post-war, many now believe that decision was erroneous. Three decades ago, on 5 December 1994, during a ceremony in Budapest, Ukraine, alongside Belarus and Kazakhstan, relinquished their nuclear arsenals in exchange for security assurances from the United States, the UK, France, China, and Russia. Technically, the missiles were the property of the Soviet Union, not its newly independent former republics. Nevertheless, one-third