Report: Quarter of English Properties Face Flood Risk by 2050

Approximately eight million properties in England, equivalent to one in four, could be susceptible to flooding by 2050 as the threat intensifies due to climate change, the Environment Agency (EA) has announced. In its initial evaluation of how a warming global climate might impact flooding, the EA cautioned about escalating dangers from increased rainfall and rising sea levels. The count of vulnerable properties could rise further if more construction occurs on floodplains, but could decrease if flood defences are enhanced. Current data indicates that 6.3 million properties are presently considered at risk from flooding, a figure higher than previously estimated. “The frequency and severity of the kind of flood events that we’ve been experiencing are likely to become more and more challenging,” stated Julie Foley, director of flood risk strategy at the Environment Agency. The EA identifies three primary sources of flooding: rivers, the sea, and surface water, which occurs when intense rainfall overwhelms drainage systems. A property is defined as “at risk” if its annual probability of flooding exceeds one-in-1,000. Presently, the EA reports that 4.6 million homes and businesses are vulnerable to surface flooding, with London being the most affected region. This represents a 43% increase from its previous estimate, though this rise is almost entirely attributable to improved datasets and computer modelling techniques, rather than an actual increase in real-world flood risk. However, the EA suggests that climate change could elevate the number of properties at risk of surface flooding to approximately 6.1 million by the middle of the century. It is widely documented that a warming world generally intensifies heavy rainfall. For example, between October 2023 and March 2024, the volume of rainfall on the stormiest days in the UK increased by an estimated 20% on average due to climate change. The report also highlights a growing risk of flooding from rivers and the sea, projected to affect around 3.1 million properties by mid-century, up from 2.4 million today. The East Midlands, Yorkshire and The Humber, and south-east England are particularly exposed. This form of flooding, resulting from rivers overflowing their banks or storm surges bringing seawater ashore, can be especially destructive as it often involves deeper floodwaters. Wetter winters heighten the chances of river flooding, while rising sea levels make coastal flooding more probable. Global sea levels are primarily increasing due to a combination of melting glaciers and ice sheets, and the thermal expansion of warmer water. They are anticipated to continue rising for centuries. Average sea levels around the UK have already risen by nearly 20cm since 1900, with the majority of this increase occurring since 1990. This also has consequential effects on coastal erosion, which is the displacement of land along coastlines caused by wave action. The UK already possesses some of Europe’s most rapidly eroding coastlines. Nevertheless, the EA states that climate change could increase the number of properties at risk of effectively being lost into the sea to nearly 20,000 by 2100, even if adequate shoreline management plans are implemented. This would be an increase from 3,500 properties projected between now and mid-century. This report exclusively considers how climate change influences future flood risk. Many other factors, ranging from construction on floodplains to enhancements in flood defences, could also shape the future impacts of flooding. Partly owing to the Thames Barrier flood defence, for instance, London is currently considered to have a lower risk of flooding from rivers and the sea compared to some other regions. However, there have been repeated warnings that the UK is inadequately prepared for the effects of a changing climate. Earlier this year, a cross-party committee of MPs cautioned that the government had not maintained a sufficient number of its existing flood defences or constructed enough new ones. A lack of funding has been a significant issue. In response to today’s report, Floods Minister Emma Hardy acknowledged that “too many communities are exposed to the dangers of flooding.” She added, “That is why we have committed £2.4 billion over the next two years to maintain, repair and build flood defences to protect communities across the country.” Additional reporting by Jonah Fisher and Miho Tanaka; map by Erwan Rivault Readers can subscribe to our Future Earth newsletter for exclusive insights on the latest climate and environment news from the BBC’s Climate Editor Justin Rowlatt, delivered to your inbox every week. For those outside the UK, an international newsletter is available here. Copyright 2024 BBC. All rights reserved. The BBC is not responsible for the content of external sites. Read about our approach to external linking.