South Africa’s Dominance Leads to Twelfth Consecutive Loss for Wales

South Africa secured their eleventh victory in thirteen Tests during the 2024 Autumn Test Series. Wales scored 12 points (5 at half-time), with tries from Rio Dyer and James Botham, and a conversion by Thomas. South Africa scored 45 points (26 at half-time), with tries from Franco Mostert, Eben Etzebeth, Kurt-Lee Arendse, Elrigh Louw, Aphelele Fassi, Gerhard Steenekamp, and Jordan Hendrikse, who also converted five tries. South Africa decisively overpowered an inexperienced Welsh side, highlighting the significant disparity between the two teams. It was widely anticipated that the world champions would extend Wales’ streak of winless games to twelve. The outcome appeared nearly assured after second-row forwards Franco Mostert and Eben Etzebeth scored within the initial eight minutes. Kurt-Lee Arendse and Elrigh Louw also scored during the first half, followed by Aphelele Fassi, Gerhard Steenekamp, and man-of-the-match Jordan Hendrikse in a less cohesive second half, as South Africa maintained their intensity in their final match of the season. Rio Dyer and James Botham scored what proved to be consolation tries, which, in the final minute, prevented Wales from suffering their worst ever home defeat. However, these scores were insufficient to avert an entire year without a victory, a first since 1937. Any positive aspects for Wales emerged from their flankers, Botham and Jac Morgan, and at minimum, a demonstrated will to compete until the final whistle. This might be the evidence the Welsh Rugby Union (WRU) requires to believe the team continues to play for head coach Warren Gatland. Although the Principality Stadium’s closed roof provided protection from Storm Bert, there was no escaping the persistent Springboks. A key statistic reflecting the match was Wales’ 46 missed tackles, as South Africa repeatedly forced, rebounded, and powered their way to the try line. South Africa registered seven tries, yet they could have scored additional points as Kolisi, on two occasions, and Fassi were prevented from grounding the ball over the line. Previously, Gatland’s Welsh team defeated South Africa consecutively four times between 2016 and 2018. However, it is challenging to envision two teams at more contrasting ends of the rugby spectrum this year. The future of Gatland is set to be determined by WRU boss Abi Tierney during the post-autumn review. However, more fundamental issues are scheduled for discussion at an annual general meeting for all members on Sunday. It appears difficult to resolve one matter independently of the other. Rio Dyer secured his eighth Test try. Gatland’s initial four changes following the defeat by Australia increased to six prior to kick-off, due to the absence of two key players, prop Gareth Thomas (illness) and wing Tom Rogers (calf). Nevertheless, this represented Wales’ most inexperienced team in seven years, possessing a modest combined total of only 214 caps. In contrast, the Springboks’ second-row duo of Etzebeth and Mostert collectively hold 207 caps, and, notably, it was this pair who initiated the scoring. Both players were afforded unobstructed 20-meter runs to the try line. Mostert’s try resulted from a perfectly timed run connecting with Hendrikse’s pass, while Etzebeth’s came from a counter-ruck following Sam Costelow’s catch. For the third consecutive week, a Welsh player departed the field injured within 10 minutes, with Costelow being replaced. This necessitated a midfield adjustment that was severely exploited for South Africa’s third try, scored by Arendse. Scrum dominance created the opportunity for Louw’s fourth try, before Wales eventually responded with an infrequent period of possession just before half-time. After attempting to breach the defensive line for approximately four minutes, it was ultimately the exceptional speed of Dyer that led to their score. This moment evoked memories of Shane Williams’ era – a strategy of relying on the fast winger when other options failed. Freddie Thomas of Gloucester made his Test debut following the interval, becoming the 15th new cap under Gatland this year, and the home side displayed at least some resilience. However, South Africa holds the world number one ranking, are double world champions, and reigning Rugby Championship winners. They concluded their first clean sweep of an autumn tour since 2013. Their second-half performance was not entirely convincing, but it was unnecessary given their significant lead over other teams, particularly Wales. Gatland is expected to continue his efforts, but the upcoming week may determine if he remains the coach to guide them into the Six Nations.