Russia’s ‘Furious’ Response to US Missile Decision, Warning of ‘Serious Escalation’

Russia has reacted with intense anger following President Biden’s decision to permit Ukraine to use US-supplied long-range missiles for strikes within Russian territory. On Monday morning, the website of the Russian government newspaper Rossiyskaya Gazeta stated that “Departing US president Joe Biden… has taken one of the most provocative, uncalculated decisions of his administration, which risks catastrophic consequences.” Leonid Slutsky, a Russian MP and leader of the pro-Kremlin Liberal-Democratic Party, forecasted that this decision would “inevitably lead to a serious escalation, threatening serious consequences.” Additionally, Russian senator Vladimir Dzhabarov characterized it as “an unprecedented step towards World War Three.” While met with anger, the move was not entirely unexpected. Komsomolskaya Pravda, a pro-Kremlin tabloid, described it as “a predictable escalation.” The ultimate significance, however, lies in how President Vladimir Putin characterizes the situation and his subsequent response. He has not yet commented publicly. Nevertheless, on Monday, Dmitry Peskov, President Putin’s spokesman, informed journalists that “if such a decision has been taken it means a whole new spiral of tension and a whole new situation with regard to US involvement in this conflict.” Mr. Peskov further accused the Biden administration of “adding fuel to the fire and continuing to stoke tension around this conflict.” Conversely, Western leaders would assert that Russia is the one ‘adding the fuel’ through its recent deployment of North Korean troops to the conflict zone to fight alongside Russian forces and its ongoing attacks on Ukraine. Although President Putin has not yet issued a personal statement, the Russian president has previously articulated his stance on this matter. Over recent months, the Kremlin has conveyed an unambiguous message to Western nations: refrain from removing restrictions on the use of long-range weapons and do not permit Kyiv to conduct strikes deep within Russian territory using these missiles. In September, President Putin cautioned that if such actions were permitted, Moscow would consider it “direct participation” of NATO countries in the Ukraine war. He elaborated, “This would mean that Nato countries… are fighting with Russia.” The subsequent month, the Kremlin leader declared upcoming revisions to the Russian nuclear doctrine, which outlines the conditions under which Moscow might opt to employ a nuclear weapon. This announcement was broadly seen as another clear signal to America and Europe against allowing Ukraine to target Russian territory with long-range missiles. Predicting Vladimir Putin’s subsequent actions remains challenging, yet he has provided indications. In June, during a meeting with leaders of international news agencies, Putin was questioned about Russia’s potential reaction if Ukraine were granted the capability to strike targets within Russian territory using European-supplied weapons. President Putin responded, “First, we will, of course, improve our air defence systems. We will be destroying their missiles.” He continued, “Second, we believe that if someone is thinking it is possible to supply such weapons to a war zone to strike our territory and create problems for us, why can’t we supply our weapons of the same class to those regions around the world where they will target sensitive facilities of the countries that are doing this to Russia?” This statement implied that Moscow has been contemplating providing weapons to Western adversaries to target Western facilities globally. In a recent interview conducted by the author, Alexander Lukashenko, the leader of Belarus and a close ally of Putin, appeared to corroborate that the Kremlin has been considering such actions. Mr. Lukashenko stated that he had addressed this topic during a recent meeting with Western officials. He recounted, “I warned them. ‘Guys, be careful with those long-range missiles.'” Mr. Lukashenko further elaborated, “The Houthi [rebels] might come to Putin and ask for coastal weapons systems that can carry out terrifying strikes on ships. And if he gets his revenge on you for supplying long-range weapons to [President] Zelensky by supplying the Houthis with the Bastion missile system? What happens if an aircraft carrier is hit? A British or American one. What then?” However, certain reactions within the Russian media seemed intended to downplay the situation. A military expert informed the Izvestia newspaper that “The Russian armed forces had already [previously] intercepted ATACMS missiles during attacks on the Crimean shore.” The newspaper also speculated that President-elect Trump might “revise” the decision. This presents an uncommon scenario. In two months, President Biden’s term will conclude, and Donald Trump will assume the presidency. The Kremlin is aware that President-elect Trump has expressed significantly more skepticism regarding military aid for Ukraine compared to President Biden. The question remains whether this upcoming change in US leadership will influence Vladimir Putin’s strategic considerations as he determines Russia’s reaction.