Wales faces historic low as they prepare to play Australia

Wales flanker Jac Morgan and Australia lock Will Skelton are both set to make their initial Test starts of 2024 in the Autumn Nations Series match between Wales and Australia. The game will take place at Principality Stadium in Cardiff on Sunday, 17 November, with kick-off scheduled for 16:10 GMT. Coverage will be available live on S4C, BBC Radio Wales, Radio Cymru, and via live text and commentary on the BBC Sport website and app. The statistical outlook is severe, and the stakes are exceptionally high for Welsh rugby this Sunday. A loss to Australia in Cardiff would see Wales reach an unprecedented low in terms of results in their 143-year international rugby history. Following their defeat against Fiji last weekend, Wales matched a streak of 10 Test losses previously recorded under Warren Gatland’s compatriot, New Zealander Steve Hansen, between 2002 and 2003. Should they lose to the Wallabies, Warren Gatland’s squad would become the first Welsh team to endure 11 consecutive international defeats. Since their victory over Georgia at the World Cup in October 2023, Wales has suffered defeats against Argentina, Scotland, England, Ireland, France, Italy, South Africa, Australia (on two occasions), and Fiji. With world champions South Africa scheduled for 23 November, Wales faces the possibility of completing an entire calendar year without a Test victory, a situation not experienced since 1937, when they lost three matches within that 12-month period. Warren Gatland, the Wales boss, stated: “I didn’t think there’d be this much pain, to be honest.” Since commencing his second tenure as Wales boss before the 2023 Six Nations, Gatland has overseen only six wins from 22 Test matches. Wales concluded this year’s Six Nations at the bottom of the table, a first since 2003, and has fallen to their lowest-ever position of 11th in the world rankings. This decline stands in stark contrast to his initial 12-year period, which yielded World Cup semi-final appearances, Six Nations titles, Grand Slams, and a brief stint as the world’s number one team. Critics, including former Wales players Mike Phillips, Tom Shanklin, Dan Biggar, and Welsh Rugby Union non-executive independent board member Jamie Roberts, have targeted Gatland in the lead-up to Australia’s visit to Principality Stadium, with media engagements including numerous questions regarding his future. The 61-year-old coach has affirmed that he has not considered stepping down and is comfortable with any decisions that may arise. However, he acknowledges that his Wales team urgently requires a victory. Australia secured a win against England in the opening match of their European tour. Just over a year ago, on a warm Sunday evening in Lyon, Wales decisively defeated Australia. They advanced to the World Cup quarter-finals with a record 40-6 victory, which highlighted Australia’s struggles under then-coach Eddie Jones. The Wallabies ultimately exited at the pool stage, and head coach Jones departed just two months later. However, Wales has achieved only one Test win since then, while Australia is now under the leadership of former Ireland boss Joe Schmidt. The Wallabies claimed both Tests in a summer series against Wales this year, and despite five subsequent losses in the Rugby Championship, Australia achieved a new high under Schmidt by defeating England in their autumn opener with a last-minute try, securing a 42-37 victory. The challenge for Schmidt’s team is to replicate that performance eight days later. Jac Morgan expressed confidence that Wales can defeat Australia to restore pride. Wales has implemented four changes to their squad due to injuries to wing Mason Grady and scrum-half Tomos Williams. Williams sustained a shoulder injury during the defeat by Fiji and will be replaced by Ellis Bevan, while Scarlets wing Tom Rogers will step in for Grady, who suffered an ankle problem. The unavailability of Williams and Grady means that Wales fly-half Gareth Anscombe, who is set to earn his 39th cap on Sunday, has made 13 more international appearances than the combined total of the other six members of the Welsh backline. The Welsh backline is also one of the smallest selected by Gatland. Elsewhere, Ospreys flanker Jac Morgan will make his first Test start in 13 months. His last appearance in a Wales Test line-up was against World Cup quarter-final opponents Argentina, before knee and hamstring injuries ruled him out of last season’s Six Nations and the summer tour to Australia. Morgan takes the place of open-side flanker Tommy Reffell, and James Botham also receives an opportunity in the back row, wearing the number six shirt instead of Taine Plumtree. Schmidt has made six alterations from the team that overcame England, including the exciting midfield prospect Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii moving out of the starting XV and onto the replacements bench. Samu Kerevi will replace Suaalii, while prop Allan Alaalatoa will start as captain, with Harry Wilson sidelined due to concussion. Wilson’s absence from the back row facilitates a first Test start for flanker Seru Uru, with Rob Valetini shifting to number eight. Lock Will Skelton, scrum-half Nic White, and last weekend’s match-winner, wing Max Jorgensen, are also included in the starting lineup. Kerevi and Valetini are both set to earn their 50th caps. Wales has not secured a Test match victory at the Principality Stadium for 15 months. Wales: Winnett; Rogers, Llewellyn, B Thomas, Murray; Anscombe, Bevan; G Thomas, Lake (capt), Griffin, Rowlands, Beard, Botham, Morgan, Wainwright. Replacements: Elias, N Smith, Assiratti, Tshiunza, Reffell, R Williams, Costelow, James. Australia: Wright; Kellaway, Ikitau, Kerevi, Jorgensen; Lolesio, White; Bell, Faessler, Alaalatoa, Frost, Skelton, Uru, McReight, Valetini. Replacements: Paenga-Amosa, Slipper, Nonggorr, Salakaia-Loto, Gleeson, McDermott, Donaldson, Suaalii. The referee for the match will be James Doleman (New Zealand), with assistant referees Karl Dickson (England) and Angus Mabey (New Zealand). The Television Match Official (TMO) will be Marius van der Westhuizen (South Africa). Wales head coach Warren Gatland commented: “We have tried to point out from the outset that we need to go through some pain. I didn’t think there would be this much pain, to be honest. We have tried to be clear about building and developing this group of youngsters. We know it takes a bit of time. I am well aware you are not always given time. It is about results – I have tried to not shy away from that, I understand that. Criticism is part of the job and the role. All we can do is keep working hard. Hopefully, the tide turns pretty soon.” Australia head coach Joe Schmidt stated: “Obviously, this time last year, Wales put 40 points on the Wallabies [in the World Cup]. They got very close to a number of teams in the Six Nations, losing by one score to England and Scotland, as well as Fiji last week. I am expecting them to be incredibly hard to beat. They are dogmatic with the way they go about their defensive work and are very hard to break down.” Assistant coach Neil Jenkins conveyed that Wales’ current sequence of defeats “hurts.” Wales has lost all nine of their Test matches played in 2024, which already equals their highest number in a non-World Cup year, alongside 2010 and 2022. Furthermore, they have lost their last 10 matches overall, matching their longest such streak from 2002-2003. This encounter will mark the 12th time Warren Gatland and Joe Schmidt have competed against each other as head coaches in men’s Test rugby. Only Graham Henry and Robbie Deans (15), and Michael Cheika and Steve Hansen (14) have faced each other more frequently in matches between two Tier one nations. The current head-to-head record stands at three wins for Gatland, seven for Schmidt, and one draw. Australia achieved 13 consecutive victories against Wales between 2009 and 2017, but since then, Wales has held an advantage, winning four of the seven subsequent meetings. Australia has defeated Wales nine times in their last 11 matches played in Cardiff. If Dragons scrum-half Rhodri Williams is brought on from the replacements bench, he will establish a new record for the longest interval between appearances for Wales, having last earned a cap in March 2014. The existing record was set by Newport hooker Bunner Travers, who received his eighth cap against Ireland in March 1939 and his ninth against England in January 1949. Williams would surpass this by 10 months, with over a decade separating his caps. The Principality Stadium roof will be closed for this match once more.