Unai Emery Faces Four Tactical Challenges at Aston Villa

As Aston Villa approaches this weekend’s match against Crystal Palace, the team holds the ninth position in the Premier League, having secured five victories from 11 matches and maintaining a goal difference of zero. Unai Emery’s initial two years as Aston Villa’s manager were characterized by a smooth progression, transforming the club from concerns of relegation to aspirations of Champions League participation. However, during the recent international break, Villa had to contend with a series of four consecutive losses across all competitions and a record of only one victory in their last six Premier League fixtures. This period represents the lowest point of the Emery tenure to date, by all accounts. While considered a minor setback rather than a full-blown crisis, potentially rectifiable with minor adjustments or some favorable fortune, there is a perception that Aston Villa’s current performance level is not on par with that of the previous year at this time. Injuries and player fatigue, a consequence of Champions League involvement, are undoubtedly contributing factors. Nevertheless, an examination of their Premier League displays in the 2024-25 season highlights four tactical challenges that Emery must address. Winger Leon Bailey has recorded only two goal involvements in the Premier League, a notable decrease from his 19 in the 2023-24 season. The £50m transfer of Moussa Diaby, who contributed 14 goal involvements, has further diminished Villa’s offensive creativity. The team would benefit significantly from Ian Maatsen’s runs from deep, as currently, a disproportionate amount of Villa’s attacking play is channeled through the proficient Morgan Rogers. Emery has recently attempted to alter this dynamic by introducing Jhon Duran to play alongside Ollie Watkins. However, unlike Rogers – or Diaby in the previous season – who can connect the midfield and attack, Villa’s strikers often generate larger spaces between the defensive and midfield lines. This contributed to the second-half breakdown at Spurs, resulting in a 4-1 defeat. Tottenham scored two goals within 10 minutes of Duran replacing Rogers. Following this substitution, the match became more open as Villa’s two forwards, both making runs into advanced positions, elongated the team and left the midfield exposed. This tactical shift enabled Tottenham to repeatedly exploit the vacant areas and score with considerable ease. During the 75th minute of Aston Villa’s 4-1 loss to Tottenham last month, both Watkins and Duran advanced, leaving the number 10 position (circled) unoccupied, which hindered Villa’s ability to retain possession. The ball was lost, and 11 seconds later, Spurs scored their crucial second goal. This issue is considered minor. Bailey, John McGinn, and Jacob Ramsey are all capable of regaining their form shortly, and indeed, Villa’s offensive statistics are generally comparable to those of the previous season. While their expected goals (xG) per game has decreased marginally from 1.70 to 1.52, they have nevertheless generated the second-highest number of ‘big chances’ in the Premier League, totaling 37. Watkins had a productive 2023-24 season, registering 19 goals and 13 assists in the Premier League, despite missing 22 ‘big chances’, which was the fourth highest tally. In the current season, after 11 games, Watkins has already missed 11 ‘big chances’, more than any other player in the division, while scoring five league goals. Villa’s defensive performance offers grounds for optimism. The team is committing an excessive number of errors that result in shots on goal, with nine recorded so far this season compared to 11 for the entirety of the previous season. However, their expected goals against per 90 minutes statistic has improved, decreasing from 1.56 per 90 last season to 1.08 (excluding penalties). This places them as the fourth best in the division, trailing only Arsenal, Nottingham Forest, and Liverpool. This improvement is partly attributable to Emery’s strategy of positioning the defensive line slightly deeper. Last season, Villa conceded 124 through balls, more than any other team. This year, they have allowed the fewest, with only 13. In home matches against Man Utd, Villa’s line for winning possession was three meters deeper this season (green) when contrasted with last season (red). A notable statistic indicates that goalkeeper Emiliano Martinez possesses the fourth lowest save percentage in the division at 60.5%. Furthermore, the Argentine ranks third from the bottom for conceding more goals than anticipated, as per Opta’s expected goals on target model (-2.2). Martinez’s save percentage stood at 66.4% in 2023-24 and 72.1% in 2022-23. Therefore, at both ends of the pitch, the issues appear to stem from minor details: errors in defense and wasteful finishing in attack. From the uninspired 0-0 draw against Manchester United to the expansive and vulnerable 4-1 loss to Tottenham Hotspur, Villa has not exhibited the same level of control in their play since Douglas Luiz’s transfer to Juventus during the summer. Statistical data supports this observation. A comparison between this season and the last reveals that Villa’s average Premier League possession during the first quarter of the season has decreased from 52.8% to 50.5%, with a concurrent reduction in passes completed and progressive passes. This has a dual impact. Villa is playing with a slightly deeper and less assertive approach, as seen in their draws against Man Utd and Bournemouth. Concurrently, they are involved in matches that are less compact, leading to open spaces between the lines, which explains the chaotic nature of the Spurs defeat or the 2-2 draw with Ipswich. The partnership of Luiz and Boubacar Kamara, which contributed to Villa securing 46 points from the initial 23 league matches last season, has been succeeded by Amadou Onana and Youri Tielemans. Although both new players have performed commendably, the alteration in playing style is impacting Villa’s capacity to dictate the tempo of matches. Onana exhibits less involvement than Kamara, averaging 40 passes per 90 minutes this season, in contrast to Kamara’s 55.6 per 90 last season. However, the replacement of Luiz with Tielemans has emerged as the more significant concern. While Tielemans and Luiz might attempt a comparable volume of passes, Tielemans’ passes are characterized by being more vertical and direct, which accounts for the reduction in Villa’s possession share. To illustrate this distinction more clearly – specifically how Tielemans’ playing style tends to stretch Villa, thereby increasing their susceptibility to fragmented passing or open, end-to-end matches – consider a representative pass map for each player provided below: All passes made by Douglas Luiz in Villa’s 3-1 victory over Luton in October 2023, indicating successful (green) and failed (red) passes. All passes made by Youri Tielemans in Villa’s 0-0 draw against Man Utd in October 2024, indicating successful (green) and failed (red) passes. Fortunately for Villa, Kamara has returned from injury. His presence could enhance their control in midfield and central defense. In the previous season, Kamara (number 44 in the graphic below) was tasked with positioning himself as part of a back three alongside the central defenders when Villa was in possession, thereby establishing a more robust central foundation for building possession and launching attacks. Villa’s average player positions during last season’s 3-1 win against Crystal Palace illustrate how Kamara (44) contributed to forming a back five when developing possession. For the 2024-25 season, Villa has transitioned to a less stable back two formation. Villa’s ability to progress the ball has diminished: their touches per 90 minutes have decreased from 606.8 to 567.0 this season, with 67% of these touches occurring in their own defensive third, as reported by football data provider FBRef. This indicates that Villa is no longer building play from the back with the same deliberate approach. Rectifying this situation might involve the straightforward solution of repositioning Kamara, which could enhance Villa’s control and share of possession. Theoretically, this would also enable Emery to incorporate his more offensive left-back, Maatsen, allowing him to advance freely while a back three maintains defensive solidity. In Villa’s 4-1 loss to Spurs earlier this month, the team’s average positions clearly depicted a back four formation. Another option would be to acquire a new right-back, a move Emery reportedly pursued during the summer. This would facilitate Ezri Konsa’s permanent return to central defense, replacing Diego Carlos. While Carlos is performing competently in defense, his passing often lacks incisiveness or the ability to break lines, in contrast to Konsa, who is proficient at advancing the ball even under duress. Currently, the team’s tactical arrangement lacks precision, and Duran’s recent goals have served to mask underlying deficiencies. Emery requires his key attackers to regain their form, his defense to improve its sharpness, and Kamara to provide stability at the heart of the midfield.