Global Land Area Affected by Extreme Drought Has Tripled Since the 1980s, Study Finds

A recent report examining the impacts of climate change indicates that the global land surface experiencing extreme drought has tripled since the 1980s. Analysis from the Lancet Countdown on Health and Climate Change shows that 48% of the Earth’s land surface endured at least one month of extreme drought last year, a significant rise from the 15% average observed in the 1980s. In 2023, nearly a third of the world, specifically 30%, faced extreme drought conditions for three months or more, compared to an average of 5% in the 1980s. This latest study provides current global data on drought, highlighting its rapid intensification. Extreme drought is defined by a period of six months with either very low rainfall, very high evaporation from plants and soil, or a combination of both. Such conditions present immediate threats to water and sanitation, food security, and public health, in addition to potentially impacting energy supplies, transportation networks, and the economy. The origins of specific droughts are intricate, involving numerous factors influencing water availability, ranging from natural weather phenomena to human land use practices. Nevertheless, climate change is altering global rainfall patterns, thereby increasing the susceptibility of certain regions to drought. The escalation of drought has been especially pronounced in South America, the Middle East, and the Horn of Africa. In the Amazon region of South America, drought poses a risk of altering weather patterns. It leads to the death of trees that are crucial for stimulating the formation of rainclouds, thereby disrupting finely balanced rainfall cycles. This creates a self-reinforcing cycle that contributes to further drought. Concurrently, while significant portions of the land mass have experienced desiccation, extreme rainfall has also intensified. Over the last 10 years, 61% of the world recorded an increase in extreme rainfall, relative to a baseline average established between 1961 and 1990. The relationship connecting droughts, floods, and global warming is intricate. Elevated temperatures enhance water evaporation from soil, exacerbating dryness during rainless periods. Additionally, climate change is modifying rainfall patterns. As oceans heat up, increased water vapor enters the atmosphere. The atmosphere itself is also warming, enabling it to retain more moisture. When this moisture travels over land or coalesces into a storm, it results in more intense precipitation. The Lancet Countdown report identified that the health consequences of climate change have reached unprecedented levels. Last year, drought led to an additional 151 million people facing food insecurity compared to the 1990s, contributing to malnutrition. Heat-related fatalities among individuals over 65 also rose by 167% compared to the 1990s. Furthermore, escalating temperatures and increased rainfall are fostering a rise in mosquito-borne viruses. Dengue fever cases are at their highest recorded levels, and dengue, malaria, and West Nile virus have expanded into previously unaffected areas. A surge in dust storms has subjected millions more individuals to hazardous air pollution. Marina Romanello, executive director of the Lancet Countdown, stated, “The climate is changing fast. It is changing to conditions that we are not used to and that we did not design our systems to work around.” As part of the series Life at 50 degrees, BBC World Service reported from some of the world’s warmest regions, where water demand was already substantial. The reporting indicated that extreme drought and rainfall had further constrained water access. Since 2020, an extreme and exceptional agricultural drought has affected northeast Syria and portions of Iraq. In recent years, Hasakah, a city with a population of one million, has experienced a depletion of clean water supplies. Osman Gaddo, the Head of Water Testing for the Hasakah City Water Board, remarked, “Twenty years ago, water used to flow into the Khabor River but this river has been dried for many years because there is no rain.” He added, “People have no access to fresh water.” When unable to obtain water, residents dig their own wells, but the groundwater can be contaminated, leading to illness. Hasakah’s drinking water is sourced from a well system located 25 kilometres away; however, these wells are also diminishing, and the fuel required for water extraction is scarce. Unwashed clothing and inadequate bathing for children are common, resulting in widespread skin diseases and diarrhoea. A resident informed the BBC, “People are ready to kill their neighbour for water.” The resident further stated, “People are going thirsty every day.” In South Sudan, 77% of the nation experienced at least one month of drought last year, with half the country enduring extreme drought for a minimum of six months. Simultaneously, over 700,000 individuals have been impacted by flooding. Village elder Nyakuma commented, “Things are deteriorating.” She continued, “When we go in the water, we get sick. And the food we eat isn’t nutritious enough.” Nyakuma has contracted malaria on two occasions within a few months. Following last year’s flooding, her family lost their entire cattle herd and now subsist on government assistance supplemented by foraged items. Sunday, Nyakuma’s husband, remarked, “Eating this is like eating mud,” while searching floodwater for waterlily roots. During periods of drought, rivers and lakes desiccate, and the soil becomes parched, leading to hardening and loss of vegetation. Should heavy rainfall occur afterward, water is unable to permeate the ground and instead flows off, resulting in flash flooding. Romanello further stated, “Plants can adapt to extreme drought, to an extent anyway, but flooding really disrupts their physiology. It is really bad for food security and the agricultural sector.” Without a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions and a halt to further increases in global temperature, an escalation of drought and more intense rainfall are anticipated. The year 2023 was recorded as the warmest year. Romanello commented, “At the moment, we are still in a position to just about adapt to the changes in the climate. But it is going to get to a point where we will reach the limit of our capacity. Then we will see a lot of unavoidable impacts.” She concluded, “The higher we allow the global temperature to go, the worse things are going to be.”