In Beirut’s eastern Achrafieh district, the sounds of conflict are prominent during the night. Inhabitants report hearing Israeli aerial assaults targeting Dahieh, the southern suburbs of the Lebanese capital. Some residents can observe the resulting explosions illuminating the night sky from their residences. Nevertheless, the streets themselves remain calm. Uniformed volunteers are observed patrolling this predominantly Christian area, utilizing walkie-talkies for operational coordination. This neighborhood watch initiative was established several years prior, in response to Lebanon’s financial crisis, to alleviate residents’ concerns regarding criminal activity. However, its purpose has evolved in light of recent events. Nadim Gemayel, the founder of the organization overseeing the neighborhood watch, stated, “We have concerns with displaced people who are coming in huge numbers to Beirut, and they have a lot of needs, and it is very complicated.” Throughout Lebanon, various communities mobilized to provide shelter and sustenance for hundreds of thousands of families displaced following Israel’s intensified air campaign against Hezbollah last month, preceding a ground invasion of the southern region. Nonetheless, the arrival of individuals from predominantly Shia Muslim regions—specifically Dahieh, south Lebanon, and the Bekaa Valley in the east, where the Iran-backed group maintains a significant presence—into areas primarily inhabited by Sunni Muslims and Christians, carries the potential to intensify sectarian divisions within a nation still marked by the vivid recollections of the 1975-1990 civil war. Recent Israeli assaults on these regions have only served to escalate friction between local inhabitants and the newly arrived displaced population. A particular incident on 14 October, a strike in the northern town of Aitou resulting in the deaths of 23 displaced individuals, profoundly affected the Christian community. Despite the fact that the influx of affluent Shia families from the southern region and Dahieh has led to a sharp increase in rental costs and enhanced landlords’ revenues, many now harbor apprehension that these newcomers might be Hezbollah members and, consequently, potential targets for Israeli actions. Certain property management companies have circulated questionnaires to residents, requesting personal identification information, the count of family members residing in apartments, and details of vehicles in use. In specific localities, flyers have been disseminated urging Hezbollah members to depart, and individuals identified as having connections to the group have been instructed to leave. Gemayel articulated, “There is a feeling of fear. Some citizens are suspicious about who is coming to their region. A lot of people are very afraid that some Hezbollah members live in a building where they are followed by Israel and probably targeted.” He added, “This is why we are trying to follow up what’s happening and trying to control this with the army and security forces to secure the refugees and citizens at the same time.” While the neighborhood watch might offer a sense of security to residents, some express apprehension that such an undertaking evokes memories of the civil war era, a period when sectarian militias exerted control over distinct sectors of Beirut. The civil war, which spanned 15 years and resulted in approximately 150,000 fatalities, involved armed groups aligned with Lebanon’s various religious communities clashing amongst themselves. Initially, the conflict emerged between Christian and Palestinian militias, the latter having formed alliances with Muslim militias. Subsequently, hostilities arose between Christian and Muslim militias. External powers also became involved, with Syrian forces deploying and Israel conducting two invasions. Bashir Gemayel, Nadim Gemayel’s father, commanded the primary Christian militia, the Lebanese Forces, until his assassination in Achrafieh in 1982, following his election as the nation’s president. The 1989 Taif Accord, which concluded the civil war, mandated the disarmament of all militias; however, Hezbollah was exempted due to its engagement with Israeli forces occupying southern Lebanon. Upon the eventual withdrawal of Israeli forces in 2000, Hezbollah resisted calls to relinquish its armaments and persisted in conducting cross-border assaults against Israel. The group engaged in a month-long conflict in 2006, which resulted in extensive destruction across much of the south and Beirut’s southern suburbs. Gemayel has consistently advocated for Hezbollah to surrender its weapons. Following Israel’s intensified aerial offensive, he remarked that the group was “reaping what it sowed over the past 20 years” – yet he also cautioned that the Lebanese populace would “pay a heavy price in destruction and devastation.” A starkly different situation unfolds in Hamra, a diverse neighborhood located in western Beirut. In contrast to Beirut’s predominantly Christian areas, numerous schools in Hamra have been repurposed as shelters for displaced families. Adherents of the Syrian Socialist National Party, an ally of Hezbollah with a presence in Hamra, promptly made vacant structures available, including recently constructed apartment complexes, to accommodate displaced families. This action led to friction between certain property owners and the displaced families who gained entry to these premises. Landlords voiced concerns that the new occupants might ultimately decline to vacate the complimentary housing. Within a six-story building from the 1960s, situated in central Hamra, an anonymous designer maintains her studio on the uppermost floor. She reported that some families forcibly entered the building and occupied vacant apartments. She stated, “At beginning, we had 20 people. Now, we have 100 living in the building.” She expressed, “I have great sympathy for them and don’t want women and children to stay in the street. I won’t ask them to leave until the government finds a solution, but this is not sustainable.” Furthermore, she voiced apprehension regarding the potential social ramifications for the locality. The newly arrived individuals belong entirely to the Shia community and adhere to stringent religious customs, with women observing the chador, a full-body garment that conceals everything except their faces. She commented, “I don’t have a problem with any religion, but they also should accept my style of living as an atheist.” Indeed, the atmosphere in Hamra, a district characterized by its diverse cultures and faiths, is undergoing a transformation. It is estimated that thousands of individuals have relocated to the area. Navigating the neighborhood, whether by vehicle or on foot, has become challenging due to the volume of cars and motorcycles contributing to traffic congestion. The local nightlife has also shifted, with patrons of parties and bars now supplanted by individuals lining up for fast food and shisha establishments. Outside the temporary shelters, men and women can be seen on the sidewalks, smoking shishas and viewing news on their mobile phones or even televisions until late hours – a practice that has drawn complaints from long-term residents. However, a growing number of property owners are now compelling occupants to vacate their premises. Fatima al-Haj Yousef, who arrived from the Bekaa Valley with her husband and three children, expresses apprehension about their future destination. She has resided in the current building for the preceding three weeks. She stated, “We are happy to sign documents confirming that when the war is over, we will leave, but they sent the police to force us out.” Fatima’s primary concern revolves around her three-and-a-half-year-old daughter, who is battling cancer and requires medication. She articulated, “I just need to be somewhere safe and clean for my daughter. The schools are packed full of people, and everyone is smoking indoors.” While Fatima did not perceive any sectarian animosity directed at her as a Shia individual, another man residing in the building with his five children held a contrasting perspective. He remarked, “If they accept to pay rent, we already can pay rent. But [the landlord] didn’t accept… She wants us to go. It’s not only about the building. It’s something else. I think, and this is my opinion, she wants to kill the [Shia] Muslims here.” This sentiment was corroborated by Daniel, a social worker affiliated with Hezbollah, who was assisting in securing alternative accommodation for the families. He stated, “They think that resistance is weakened by the death of Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah, but we are all Nasrallah,” referencing the Hezbollah leader who was killed by Israel in Dahieh last month. He posits that the building is being vacated because its occupants are displaced families, who are largely Shia and are identified as adherents of what he terms “the resistance movement” – or Hezbollah. A prevalent belief among many in this area is that Israel will persist until Hezbollah is entirely disarmed. Nadim Gemayel remarked, “Either all Lebanon will be destroyed by Israel which will be catastrophic, or they [Hezbollah] surrender and give up their arms, and we build a Lebanese state that will be based on the Taif agreement, and everyone has equal rights and obligations.”

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