The Uncertain Future of the Assad Family Following the Syrian Regime’s Collapse

Bashar al-Assad’s overthrow on Sunday marked the end of not only his 24-year presidential term but also over five decades of his family’s governance in Syria. His father, Hafez, had served as president for three decades prior to Assad’s assumption of power in 2000. As rebels, spearheaded by the Islamist militant group Hayat Tahrir-al Sham (HTS), establish a transitional government, the fate of the former president, his spouse, and their three offspring remains unclear. Currently in Russia, where asylum has been extended to them, their prospects are a subject of inquiry. Russia maintained a strong alliance with Assad throughout Syria’s civil conflict and operates two significant military installations within the Middle Eastern nation. In 2015, Russia initiated an aerial campaign backing Assad, which shifted the conflict’s momentum in favor of the government. According to a UK-based monitoring organization, Russian military actions resulted in the deaths of over 21,000 individuals, among them 8,700 civilians, during the subsequent nine years. Nevertheless, due to its engagement in the war in Ukraine, Russia appeared either disinclined or incapable of assisting Assad’s administration in halting the rebels’ rapid offensive, which commenced in late November. Within hours of rebel forces taking control of Damascus, Russian state media announced that Assad and his family had reached Moscow and would receive asylum based on “humanitarian grounds.” However, when questioned by reporters on Monday regarding Assad’s location and asylum request, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated: “I have nothing to tell you… right now. Of course, such a decision [on granting asylum] cannot be made without the head of state. It is his decision.” The connections between the Assad family and Russia, particularly Moscow, are extensively documented. A 2019 inquiry by the Financial Times revealed that Assad’s broader family acquired a minimum of 18 upscale apartments in the Russian capital, reportedly to safeguard tens of millions of dollars from Syria amidst the civil conflict. Concurrently, Assad’s eldest son, Hafez, is pursuing a PhD in the city, with a local publication having reported just last week on the 22-year-old’s doctoral dissertation. During the weekend’s turmoil, Russian state television indicated that Moscow officials were engaged in discussions with “the Syrian armed opposition” to ensure the security of Russia’s military bases and diplomatic facilities. Assad’s wife, Asma, holds dual British-Syrian nationality, having been born and brought up in west London by Syrian parents. Her education, including school and university, took place in London before she embarked on a career as an investment banker. Asma relocated to Syria permanently in 2000 and wed Assad approximately when he assumed the presidency from his father. Dr. Nesrin Alrefaai, a visiting fellow at the London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE), informed BBC News that Asma “holds a British passport, so could return to the UK” rather than staying in Russia. She added, “However, the USA [has] imposed sanctions on her father, Dr Fawaz al-Akhras, who is also reported to be in Russia,” implying Asma might prefer to remain in Moscow for the time being. According to a Mail Online report, neighbors stated that Asma’s father, a cardiologist, and her mother Sahar, a retired diplomat, wished to be in Moscow to “console” their daughter and son-in-law. Assad and his spouse are parents to three children: Hafez, the PhD student, along with Zein and Karim. A 2022 US State Department report submitted to Congress estimated the broader Assad family’s net worth to be between $1bn (£790m) and $2bn (£1.6bn), while acknowledging the challenge in precise estimation due to their assets being “believed to be spread out and concealed in numerous accounts, real estate portfolios, corporations, and offshore tax havens.” The report indicated that Bashar and Asma cultivated “close patronage relationships with Syria’s largest economic players, using their companies to launder money from illicit activities and funnel funds to the regime.” Furthermore, it stated that Asma possessed “influence over the economic committee that manages Syria’s ongoing economic crisis” and had made crucial determinations concerning Syria’s “food and fuel subsidies, trade and currency issues.” She also wielded influence over the Syria Trust for Development, the conduit for the majority of foreign aid designated for reconstruction in areas controlled by the regime. In 2020, then-Secretary of State Mike Pompeo claimed that Asma had “become one of Syria’s most notorious war profiteers” with assistance from her husband and family. A different high-ranking Trump administration official characterized her as the “business head of the family” and an “oligarch” who was in rivalry with Bashar’s cousin, Rami Makhlouf. He ranks among Syria’s wealthiest individuals, and the family discord became publicly known following his social media posts detailing grievances about his treatment. Subsequent to the collapse of the Assad dynasty, Agnès Callamard, secretary general of Amnesty International, stated that Syrians had endured what she termed “a horrifying catalogue of human rights violations that caused untold human suffering on a vast scale.” This encompasses “attacks with chemical weapons, barrel bombs, and other war crimes, as well as murder, torture, enforced disappearance and extermination that amount to crimes against humanity.” She urged the international community to guarantee that individuals suspected of violating international law and committing other grave human rights abuses are investigated and prosecuted for their offenses. On Tuesday, Syria’s Islamist rebel leader declared that any high-ranking officials from the overthrown regime implicated in the torture of political prisoners would be identified. Abu Mohammed al-Jolani further stated that his self-proclaimed Syrian Salvation Government intends to seek the repatriation of identified officials who have sought refuge in other nations. In France, judicial investigators have pursued an arrest warrant for Assad, citing alleged complicity in crimes against humanity and war crimes related to a fatal chemical attack in Syria in 2013, invoking the principle of universal jurisdiction. Russia does not engage in the extradition of its own citizens, which is a legal procedure involving the return of an individual to another country or state for trial on suspicion of a crime. It is improbable that Assad would depart Russia for a nation from which he could be extradited to Syria or any other jurisdiction that might bring charges against him.