Economists Project Northern Ireland’s Growth to Exceed UK Average

Economists at Ulster University indicate that Northern Ireland’s economy is projected to have expanded at a quicker rate than the overall UK average during the current year. The Ulster University Economic Policy Centre (UUEPC) has predicted an annual growth rate of 1.9% for Northern Ireland, contrasting with a 1.2% rate for the UK. Nevertheless, this trend is anticipated to shift in the coming year, with Northern Ireland’s annual growth projected to decrease to 1.5%. Concurrently, a quarterly survey conducted by Danske Bank indicates a marginal decline in consumer confidence within Northern Ireland during the third quarter of this year. This survey, which polled 1,000 individuals, reveals that confidence levels remained considerably elevated when compared to the corresponding period in 2023. Hannah Martin, an economist at Danske Bank, commented: “It is worth noting that, despite the quarterly fall in confidence, the third quarter outturn from our index was still the second highest reading since the start of 2022, and it was also above the long-term average.” She further stated: “This suggests that there was more caution in quarter three, but a reasonable level of confidence was still evident among consumers.” The UUEPC report indicates that the recent Westminster budget is expected to provide a temporary impetus to growth across the entire UK, attributed to an increase in public expenditure. However, the report also notes that growth is anticipated to decelerate in the medium term, a consequence of elevated taxes and inflation levels that will surpass what they would have been absent the budget’s provisions. Dr. Myles Patton, principal economist at the UUEPC, remarked: “Despite considerable economic turbulence, the Northern Ireland economy has displayed robust strength and performed relatively well in 2024, largely due to the local labour market with increasing workforce jobs underpinned by expansion in the professional services, manufacturing, and health sectors.” He further stated: “Looking ahead, growth is expected to slow, but if the NI Executive make the right economic-focused investment decisions, recovery can be expected in the medium and longer term.”