Scotland’s World Cup Qualification Hopes Depend on Upcoming Five Days

Steve Clarke’s Scotland team has secured only one victory since September 2023. The upcoming Nations League fixture between Scotland and Croatia is scheduled for Friday, 15 November, at Hampden Park, Glasgow, with a kick-off time of 19:45 GMT. Live coverage will be available on BBC Sounds and BBC Radio Scotland, alongside real-time updates on the BBC Sport website and app. The late Craig Brown was renowned for his dedication and meticulousness during his tenure as Scotland manager. While always preparing for immediate matches, Brown also diligently considered the national team’s mid-to-long term prospects. Seeding for future tournaments was a constant consideration when he selected friendly opponents and sought to improve the team’s ranking whenever possible. In September 2023, Scotland defeated Cyprus in Euro 2024 qualifying, effectively securing their place at the finals in Germany. Since then, they have recorded only one win, and none in competitive matches. Following their Nations League promotion the previous year and with a major tournament to prepare for, the decision was made to generally schedule friendly matches against top-ranked nations. This strategy led to significant defeats by England, France, and the Netherlands, in addition to competitive losses to Spain and the Euro 2024 humbling at the hands of the hosts on the opening night in Munich. Failing to overcome Georgia, an “Erling Haaland-less” Norway in their final Euro qualifiers, and Northern Ireland and Finland in friendlies further hindered Scotland’s efforts to regain the composure they had previously demonstrated in abundance. Performances in Nations League A this autumn indicate an improved standard against Europe’s larger nations. With the exception of the first half of the opening match against Poland, Scotland has performed well, even if the results have not consistently followed. That frustrating late defeat against the Poles at Hampden increasingly appears to be a blow to their prospects of reaching a first World Cup since 1998, when Brown was in charge. As a result, Steve Clarke needs “snookers” to make the path smoother. His side lost 3-2 to Poland despite a strong comeback from being 2-0 down at half-time. Since then, despite some robust showings, they remain winless, with a home game against Croatia and an away trip to Poland still to play. Thanks to a sequence of “one win in 16” matches and the “longest-ever sequence of competitive games without a victory,” Scotland’s world ranking has plummeted to 51st. It had reached as high as 30th after their victories over Norway and Georgia in June 2023. They are now just outside Europe’s top 24, which means they are likely destined for pot three in the qualifying draw for the 2026 World Cup in the Americas. As is often the case with Scotland, a glimmer of hope persists at the crucial stage of a campaign. In this situation, it is the possibility of still avoiding pot three. They can still, incredibly, secure a place in pot one and avoid the highest-ranked nations in next year’s qualifiers by finishing among the top two in their Nations League section alongside Portugal. This is because world rankings will only be used to determine the World Cup qualification pots for teams that finish outside the top two of Nations League A. However, achieving this would require Scotland to win consecutive games for the first time since the successful early Euro 2024 qualifiers last year. Due to the head-to-head tiebreaker, it would necessitate a two-goal victory over Croatia at Hampden on Friday and a similar result in Poland on Monday. Concurrently, Portugal would need to defeat the Poles at home and also overcome the Croats in Zagreb. If that sequence of results materializes, Scotland would finish in an improbable second place in the section, securing both a pot-one berth for the World Cup qualifying draw on December 13 and a place in March’s Nations League quarter-finals. The advantages of being in pot one are clear, given that only group winners in World Cup qualifying are guaranteed a place at the finals, with the runners-up proceeding to the play-offs. Only Nations League group winners have the insurance policy of a guaranteed play-off, and that opportunity has long since passed for Scotland. This implies that if the Scots are in pot three, they could face a challenging route to qualify for their first World Cup in what will be 28 years by the time the tournament commences. France, Spain, or England are among the top seeds, and pot two could lead to matches against teams such as Ukraine, Turkey, Slovakia, Greece, or Norway, rather than pot three sides like Finland, North Macedonia, Northern Ireland, or Iceland. Much of this situation is largely out of Scotland’s hands. Clarke’s side will need two victories in the next five days and favorable results elsewhere – primarily Norway, who defeated Slovenia on Thursday, losing at home to Kazakhstan. The Czech Republic, Romania, Slovakia, and Greece are also within striking distance for the Scots. Furthermore, while a third-place finish might offer little assistance to their World Cup ambitions, it would place Scotland into a Nations League relegation play-off in the spring, providing an opportunity to preserve their League A status. However, that is a consideration for another time. Regardless of the outcomes, these next two matches will have repercussions for this Scotland team over the subsequent 12 months.