Paths to Victory for Harris and Trump in the Presidential Election

As the election approaches, the contest for the White House is evenly matched, both nationally and in crucial battleground states. Polling data indicates a tight race, within the margin of error, suggesting that either Donald Trump or Kamala Harris could potentially be ahead by two or three points, a margin that would secure a comfortable win. A compelling case can be made for why each candidate might gain an advantage by building voter coalitions in strategic locations and ensuring their turnout. A notable historical possibility is the re-election of a defeated president, an occurrence unprecedented in 130 years. The economy is the primary concern for voters. While unemployment is low and the stock market is performing strongly, most Americans report struggling with increased daily prices. Inflation, in the aftermath of the pandemic, reached levels not witnessed since the 1970s, providing Trump an opportunity to ask, “Are you better off now than you were four years ago?” In 2024, voters globally have frequently removed incumbent parties from power, partly due to the high cost of living following the Covid-19 pandemic. US voters also appear to seek change. Only a quarter of Americans report satisfaction with the country’s direction, and two-thirds possess a negative economic outlook. Harris has endeavored to be the “change candidate,” but as vice-president, she has found it difficult to distance herself from an unpopular Joe Biden. Notwithstanding the repercussions from the January 6, 2021, riot at the US Capitol, a series of indictments, and an unprecedented criminal conviction, Trump’s support has remained stable throughout the year at 40% or higher. While Democrats and “Never-Trump” conservatives contend he is unfit for office, most Republicans agree with Trump’s assertion that he is the victim of a political witch-hunt. With both sides deeply entrenched, he needs to persuade a sufficient number of the small group of undecided voters who do not hold a fixed view of him. Beyond economic conditions, elections are frequently influenced by issues with strong emotional appeal. Democrats hope this issue will be abortion, while Trump is focusing on immigration. After border encounters reached record levels under Biden and the influx impacted states far from the border, polls suggest voters trust Trump more on immigration, and that he is performing significantly better with Latino voters than in previous elections. Trump’s appeal to voters who feel forgotten and left behind has transformed US politics, converting traditional Democratic constituencies like union workers into Republicans and normalizing the protection of American industry through tariffs. If he increases turnout in rural and suburban parts of swing states, this could offset the loss of moderate, college-educated Republicans. Critics of Trump contend that he undermines America’s alliances by cultivating close ties with authoritarian leaders. The former president, however, considers his unpredictability a strength and notes that no major wars commenced during his time in the White House. Many Americans are dissatisfied, for various reasons, with the US sending billions to Ukraine and Israel, and believe America is weaker under Biden. A majority of voters, especially men whom Trump has courted through podcasts like Joe Rogan’s, view Trump as a stronger leader than Harris. Despite Trump’s perceived advantages, he remains a deeply polarizing figure. In 2020, he garnered a record number of votes for a Republican candidate but was defeated because seven million more Americans cast ballots for Biden. This election cycle, Harris is highlighting the apprehension surrounding a potential Trump return. She has characterized him as a “fascist” and a threat to democracy, while also promising to transition away from “drama and conflict.” A Reuters/Ipsos poll in July indicated that four in five Americans felt the country was spiraling out of control. Harris hopes voters, especially moderate Republicans and independents, will view her as a candidate of stability. Democrats were facing near-certain defeat when Biden withdrew from the race. United in their desire to defeat Trump, the party quickly rallied around Harris. With impressive speed from a standing start, she delivered a more forward-looking message that energized the base. While Republicans have sought to associate her with Biden’s less popular policies, Harris has rendered some of their Biden-specific attack lines redundant. The most evident example is age; polls consistently indicated voters had significant concerns about Biden’s fitness for office. The race has now shifted, and it is Trump who is aiming to become the oldest person to ever win the White House. This is the first presidential election since the US Supreme Court overturned Roe v Wade and the constitutional right to an abortion. Voters concerned with protecting abortion rights overwhelmingly support Harris, and previous elections, notably the 2022 midterms, have shown that this issue can boost turnout and significantly affect the outcome. In this election cycle, 10 states, including the swing state Arizona, will feature ballot initiatives asking voters how abortion should be regulated. This could potentially boost turnout in Harris’s favor. Her historic bid to become the first female president may also strengthen her significant lead among women voters. Groups where Harris polls more strongly, such as the college-educated and older people, are generally more likely to vote. Democrats typically perform better with high-turnout groups, while Trump has gained ground with relatively low-turnout groups like young men and those without college degrees. According to a New York Times/Siena poll, Trump holds a significant lead among those who were registered but did not vote in 2020. A key question, therefore, is whether they will participate this time. American elections are notoriously costly, and 2024 is projected to be the most expensive in history. However, regarding financial resources, Harris holds an advantage. A recent Financial Times analysis indicates she has raised more funds since becoming the candidate in July than Trump has accumulated since January 2023, also noting that her campaign has spent nearly twice as much on advertising. This financial disparity could play a role in a razor-tight race that will ultimately be decided by voters in swing states currently inundated with political advertisements.