Pakistan’s Test Series Victory Against England: A Historic Reversal of Fortunes

The 2-1 series victory for Pakistan against England, which saw Pakistan spinner Sajid Khan named player of the series despite missing the first Test, represented one of the most remarkable turnarounds in Test cricket history, akin to a three-game series being divided into two distinct halves. During their time in Pakistan, England batted for 356 overs and three balls. In the initial 191.2 overs, they scored 1,034 runs for the loss of nine wickets, averaging 115 runs per wicket at a rate of 5.40 runs per over, with a wicket falling approximately every 21 overs. However, in the subsequent 165.1 overs of the series, England managed only 603 runs for 38 wickets, resulting in an average of 16 runs per wicket at 3.65 runs per over, with a wicket falling every 26 balls. While the playing surfaces for the second and third Tests were clearly demanding, it is notable that the combined first innings totals in those matches reached 657 and 611 runs, respectively. For context, the average total runs in all Tests played in Asia since 2010 stands at approximately 730, while the global average is around 690. Regarding the average lateral deviation for spinners, these matches ranked within the top quarter of games for which ball-tracking data exists, though not within the top sixth. While the degree of spin generated from the pitch is influenced by both the bowlers involved and the surface itself, the available data indicates that these pitches presented a significant challenge without being exceptionally extreme. Furthermore, these pitches diverged considerably from the typical characteristics of surfaces found in Pakistan. Statistically, over the two decades preceding this tour, Pakistan had been the least favorable nation for spin bowlers in Test cricket. Across two periods, separated by a 10-year interval when Pakistan hosted ‘home’ Tests in the United Arab Emirates, spinners collectively maintained an average of 45.8 runs per wicket, a figure that stood at 42.0 since Test cricket resumed in Pakistan in late 2019. Australia recorded the second-highest collective average for spinners, at 43.1 since October 2004 and 40.3 since October 2019, whereas in other Asian nations, spin bowlers generally averaged in the low 30s. Prior to that 20-year span, Pakistan had proven considerably more effective for slow bowlers, who averaged 33.4, consistent with other Test-hosting countries in Asia. Consequently, this series represented a notable deviation from recent trends in Test cricket played in Pakistan. The series offered England a vastly different challenge compared to their experience two years prior on the same venues, effectively neutralizing the “Bazballistics” approach that had previously secured four consecutive Test victories for them in Pakistan. Much like their four previous successful Tests, these two defeats also produced some remarkable statistics. England’s second innings saw them dismissed in under 40 overs for the third occasion in their last four matches, following similar rapid dismissals at The Oval against Sri Lanka and in the second Test in Multan. In contrast, England recorded only three team innings of under 40 overs throughout the 1980s and another three in the 1990s, which were their least successful decades in Test cricket results. Notably, England went 55 years without being dismissed in under 40 overs, a period stretching from their 37-over dismissal by Australia at Trent Bridge in May 1921 (which was England’s first home Test innings after the First World War) to their 32.5-over dismissal by the formidable West Indies pace attack at Old Trafford in July 1976, during which they contested 387 Tests. Noman Ali and Sajid Khan collectively secured 39 of the 40 wickets available in the second and third Tests. The achievement by Noman Ali and Sajid Khan this month, taking 39 wickets in a two-Test sequence, marks an unprecedented feat for any bowling pair in Test history. Previously, in 1956, England’s Jim Laker and Tony Lock claimed 38 wickets across the third and fourth Tests against Australia; Laker secured 11 and Lock seven at Leeds, followed by Laker’s renowned 19-wicket haul at Old Trafford, with Lock contributing the remaining wicket. Ball-tracking data from CricViz demonstrates the Pakistani duo’s adept adaptation of their bowling strategies. Noman Ali delivered the ball at a noticeably slower pace than his recorded average in prior matches, while Sajid Khan bowled slightly faster on average than he had throughout his Test career before this series, incorporating a significantly higher proportion of quicker deliveries. To further highlight the exceptional nature of their success, it is instructive to examine bowlers who have taken six or more wickets in an innings in consecutive Tests against England since 1985. Before Sajid and Noman, the most recent bowler to achieve this was Mehedi Hasan Miraz of Bangladesh, who perplexed England in his inaugural series by taking 19 wickets across two Tests. While Mehedi has subsequently built a commendable, though not dominant, career, the nine bowlers preceding him on this list include some of cricket’s all-time greats: Rangana Herath, the exceptionally astute Sri Lankan left-arm spinner with over 400 Test wickets; followed by the four leading non-English wicket-takers in Test history: Muttiah Muralitharan, Anil Kumble, Glenn McGrath, and Shane Warne. Preceding these individuals were three of the finest pace bowlers ever witnessed – Malcolm Marshall, Imran Khan, and Richard Hadlee – alongside Pakistan’s Abdul Qadir, recognized as the premier leg-spinner for three decades before Warne and Kumble emerged. These cricketing legends have now been joined by Sajid, an off-spinner whose prior eight Test appearances included only one strong performance, and who had represented Pakistan just once in the preceding two-and-a-half years. Also joining them is Noman, a left-arm bowler who, prior to his impactful performance against Sri Lanka in his most recent Test in 2023, had taken only 21 wickets at an average of 53.6 in the nine Tests he had played since November 2021. Their exceptional performances contributed to what has been an unusual and captivating period for Test cricket. This period has seen a chain of results where England were defeated by Pakistan, who had previously lost to Bangladesh. Bangladesh then lost to India, who recently suffered a defeat against New Zealand. New Zealand, in turn, had lost to Sri Lanka, who themselves had been defeated by England. October 2024 has also been characterized as “The Month Of The Unexpected Seven-For.” In addition to the seemingly overlooked Sajid and Noman, India’s Washington Sundar made a return to Test cricket after a three-and-a-half-year absence, securing seven and four wickets in the second Test against New Zealand, despite having taken only 47 wickets, including one five-wicket haul, across his previous 25 red-ball matches over a seven-year span. Meanwhile, for New Zealand, Mitchell Santner, who had not achieved a four-wicket haul in any innings during his first 28 Tests over nearly nine years, claimed seven and six wickets, guiding the Kiwis to one of their most significant series victories. This marks the first calendar month in Test history where four distinct bowlers have each taken seven or more wickets in an innings, with all these bowlers likely not having anticipated playing a Test match on October 1st.