Britain’s Preparations for the Next US Presidential Term

“To everyone’s astonishment, the vulgar insurgent has won!” This entry was made by a British foreign minister in his diaries on 9 November 2016, following Donald Trump’s victory over Hillary Clinton in the race for the White House. “This looked remarkably like an abuse of power.” These words were penned by the then-prime minister in her memoirs after she awoke to the news that a Washington led by Trump had announced the withdrawal of US troops from the conflict against the Islamic State group in Iraq and Syria, doing so “without any reference to the UK and other nations whose troops were operating alongside them”. Sir Alan Duncan and Theresa May are the individuals behind these observations, which the current prime minister, Sir Keir Starmer, would be wise to consider as he contemplates the potential impact of a Trump or Kamala Harris presidency on the so-called special relationship between the UK and the US. “Dealing with Donald Trump and his administration was like dealing with no other world leader,” writes the now Lady May in a book reflecting on her career. “He was an American president like no other.” Should the Democratic vice-president secure a victory, challenges are also anticipated. She has not yet met Sir Keir and has demonstrated limited interest in Europe, but she is expected to be a significantly more conventional president than her opponent. If Sir Keir harbored any expectation that circumstances might differ this time should Trump win next week, recent days have disabused him of that notion. An accusation of election interference, originating from the Trump campaign via what was, at best, a poorly phrased LinkedIn post, escalated into a transatlantic dispute. “This needs to be seen for what it is. It’s happened every election, every political party does it,” Sir Keir informed me, referring to individuals volunteering for either side in American elections. However, the distinction was evident. On previous occasions, such actions had not provoked a major disagreement. It served as a reminder that Team Trump can be assertive, unpredictable, and possess a long memory for perceived grievances, seemingly unconcerned with its relationship with the British government. What could possibly befall the UK’s most valued international partnership if Trump is victorious? Prior to the controversy of the past week, relations between the new prime minister and the US had, ostensibly, been progressing favorably. Several weeks ago, Sir Keir and Foreign Secretary David Lammy traveled to New York to meet the former president, with me accompanying them. Perched on a pavement on Fifth Avenue, with the 58-storey Trump Tower looming behind me, we endeavored to achieve the perfect broadcast angle so that the ostentatious gold lettering spelling out “TRUMP TOWER” would be visible to viewers, even as a large lorry rumbled down the street when I began speaking. I believe we succeeded. Yet, a similar delicate balance confronted the two men. They were in New York for the United Nations General Assembly, but much of the discussion during the trip centered not on their meetings with world leaders present, but on whether they could secure time with a candidate aspiring to become one: Donald Trump. And they did obtain that meeting, which speaks volumes about the efforts British diplomats in America and London have invested, and the resolve of Sir Keir and Mr Lammy to establish connections with the individual who may soon return to the presidency. The prime minister later conveyed to me on BBC’s Newscast that “we both wanted to ensure we have a good relationship”. He further stated: “It’s up to me as prime minister to make sure I have a good relationship with whoever the president is.” “I believe strongly in personal relations. Have the ability to, as necessary, pick up the phone to them to sort out issues or talk about issues. So it was a good dinner and I’m really glad that we managed to do it.” This satisfaction was, no doubt, partly due to the abundance of unfavorable quotes concerning Trump, particularly from David Lammy, who once characterized his host as a “woman-hating, neo-Nazi-sympathising sociopath” and a “tyrant in a toupee”. There is no scarcity of past critical statements from Labour regarding the man who might soon occupy the Oval Office again. From a policy perspective, a Trump presidency would likely usher in swift changes across areas such as climate change, international trade (involving increased import taxes and tariffs), and Ukraine. In contrast to a Harris administration, a Trump presidency would probably offer the UK a free trade agreement, though it appears improbable that its terms would entice London to accept. So, what about Trump’s Democratic opponent, Vice-President Kamala Harris? Diplomatic etiquette suggests that if one meets a candidate in a foreign election, one should also meet the other. However, this encounter with Harris is unlikely to occur, despite Sir Keir having visited America three times since July. No 10 attributes this to the demands on the vice-president’s schedule during an election campaign. It is also important to acknowledge the obvious – while Sir Keir and Harris have never met, she is a far more familiar figure and considerably more likely to adopt a conventional approach to high office than her rival. Furthermore, Sir Keir has made considerable efforts to spend time with President Biden over the past four months, including two visits to the White House and a recent meeting in Berlin. This offers an imperfect method for understanding how his vice-president might govern – and without the chance to forge a personal connection – but it is not entirely without value in gaining some insight. And it is crucial to consider a broader perspective, regardless of who wins. America’s focus is increasingly shifting towards the rise of the East, particularly China. Europe holds less significance for Washington than it once did, and this trend will persist irrespective of the election outcome. Consequently, Westminster and the world await. Whatever the result, expect discussions to swiftly turn to whether and when the prime minister will receive an early invitation to Washington in the new year. A line of leaders will be seeking an audience at the White House. And what of a state visit to the UK – an event Donald Trump thoroughly enjoyed in 2019 – for a returning president unlike any other, or for America’s first female president? It remains to be seen. Between now and the US election on 5 November, BBC correspondents globally are examining the potential impact of its outcome in their respective regions, and how people worldwide perceive this White House contest. Copyright 2024 BBC. All rights reserved. The BBC is not responsible for the content of external sites. Read about our approach to external linking.