Syria’s Control Landscape After Assad’s Departure

Over a mere two-week period, Syrian rebel forces advanced from their stronghold in the north-west, seizing a series of significant urban centers, ultimately arriving in the capital, Damascus, and overthrowing President Bashar al-Assad. This occurred 13 years following the commencement of the nation’s civil conflict. Combatants, spearheaded by the rebel organization Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), utilized convoys of small vehicles and motorbikes to swiftly traverse the primary north-south highway, which serves as the nation’s central artery, capturing Damascus unopposed. While numerous citizens are commemorating the collapse of a dynastic rule that governed Syria with severe authoritarianism, the outlook remains ambiguous, and the on-the-ground conditions are still evolving, with various rebel factions holding sway over distinct regions of the country. The collapse of the Assad administration resulted from the swift and unanticipated offensive by HTS rebels. However, despite the group’s control over Syria’s principal urban centers, it does not exert authority over the entire nation. For an extended period, Syria has been managed by a diverse collection of rebel entities, including HTS in Idlib and Kurdish-led forces situated in the country’s north-east, some of whom have also secured additional areas in the preceding days and weeks. While no rebel faction will lament the demise of the Assad government, achieving agreement on the nation’s governance could still present challenges, and confrontations have occurred between rival groups in the country’s northern areas. Following years of static frontlines, the rebels initiated a rapid offensive, culminating in the president’s overthrow and the seizure of the capital over the weekend. Subsequent to capturing Aleppo, Syria’s second-largest city, at the close of November, the rebels sustained their offensive, proceeding southward to secure control of Hama last Thursday. The progression maintained its speed, and by Saturday, rebel forces moved through Homs, Syria’s third-largest city, encountering minimal opposition, and advanced directly towards the capital, Damascus. By Monday morning, President Assad’s departure from the country was confirmed, with Russian news outlets indicating he had been granted asylum in Russia. Syria, a nation with an approximate population of 22 million individuals, is situated on the Mediterranean Sea’s eastern coastline. Its borders include Turkey to the north, Lebanon and Israel to the west and south-west, Iraq to the east, and Jordan to the south. Throughout the conflict, Turkey, Western nations, and multiple Gulf Arab states have provided support to diverse factions within the Syrian opposition, each to differing extents. The Hezbollah movement, based in Lebanon and supported by Iran, engaged in combat alongside the Syrian regime’s military but has experienced significant weakening due to its ongoing conflict with Israel. This factor is considered a primary contributor to the rebels’ successful offensive. Israel, expressing apprehension regarding what it terms Iran’s “military entrenchment” within Syria, has initiated air strikes targeting Syria’s armed forces. Israeli combat aircraft have reportedly conducted hundreds of aerial assaults throughout Syria, focusing on Syrian Army military installations such as weapon storage facilities, ammunition caches, airfields, naval outposts, and research complexes. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), headquartered in the UK, reports having recorded over 350 Israeli strikes since the Assad regime’s collapse on Sunday, with targets including the capital, Damascus, as well as Aleppo and Hama. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) asserts that it has incapacitated approximately 80% of the Assad regime’s military capacity, although this specific figure lacks independent corroboration. Israel states that its operations are intended to prevent weaponry from falling “into the hands of extremists” during Syria’s transition into a post-Assad period. Furthermore, Israel reports having temporarily secured a demilitarized buffer zone within the Golan Heights, asserting that the 1974 disengagement agreement with Syria had “collapsed” following the rebel seizure of the nation. The Golan Heights constitutes a rocky elevated area situated approximately 60 kilometers (40 miles) south-west of Damascus. Israel captured this territory from Syria during the final phases of the 1967 Six-Day War and unilaterally incorporated it in 1981. This action did not receive international recognition, though the US unilaterally acknowledged it in 2019. In the northern urban area of Manbij, confrontations have erupted between Turkish-supported forces and Kurdish-led insurgents. Both parties have asserted control over sections of the city, and combat is reportedly continuing in certain districts. The Euphrates river serves as a demarcation separating the territory held by Turkish-backed factions in the west from that controlled by Kurdish-led forces in the east. During 2015, Russia deployed thousands of military personnel to Syria with the objective of maintaining President Assad’s authority. As compensation for this military aid, Russia was granted 49-year lease agreements for two strategically important military installations. The port facility at Tartous represents Russia’s sole significant overseas naval base and its only naval presence in the Mediterranean Sea. Alongside the Hmeimim air base, frequently utilized for transporting Russian military contractors to and from Africa, these two installations are crucial to Russia’s capacity to function as a global power. The Kremlin has announced its intention to engage in discussions with Syria’s incoming administration regarding the status of both locations. Presently, Russian vessels have departed the port and are positioned at anchor offshore. Copyright 2024 BBC. All rights reserved. The BBC disclaims responsibility for the content found on external websites. Information regarding our external linking policy is available.