Iran’s Future After the Collapse of its ‘Axis of Resistance’

Inside the Iranian embassy in Damascus, shattered glass and trampled flags are visible, alongside torn posters of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Pictures of Hassan Nasrallah, the former leader of Lebanon’s Hezbollah movement, who died in an Israeli air strike in Beirut in September, are also ripped. While the embassy’s ornate turquoise façade tiles remain undamaged outside, a defaced large image of Qasem Soleimani, Iran’s highly influential former military Revolutionary Guards commander—who was killed on Donald Trump’s orders during his initial presidency—serves as an additional indication of the setbacks Iran has encountered, which culminated on Sunday with the overthrow of its crucial ally, Syrian president Bashar al-Assad. As the Islamic Republic assesses its losses and anticipates a new Donald Trump presidency, questions arise regarding its future strategy: will it adopt a more hardline stance, or will it re-engage in negotiations with Western nations? The stability of the regime also remains a key concern. Following Assad’s removal, Khamenei, in his initial address, presented a resilient front despite the strategic defeat. At 85 years old, he confronts the impending issue of succession, having held power as Iran’s ultimate authority since 1989. He asserted, “Iran is strong and powerful – and will become even stronger.” Khamenei maintained that the Iran-led coalition in the Middle East, comprising Hamas, Hezbollah, Yemen’s Houthis, and Iraqi Shia militias—referred to as the “scope of resistance” against Israel—would similarly gain strength. He stated, “The more pressure you exert, the stronger the resistance becomes. The more crimes you commit, the more determined it becomes. The more you fight against it, the more it expands.” However, the regional repercussions stemming from the Hamas massacres in Israel on 7 October 2023—events that Iran applauded, even if it did not directly support them—have significantly destabilized the regime. Israel’s responsive actions against its adversaries have reshaped the Middle Eastern geopolitical environment, placing Iran in a defensive position. James Jeffrey, a former US diplomat and deputy national security advisor now affiliated with the non-partisan Wilson Center think-tank, observed, “All the dominoes have been falling.” He added, “The Iranian Axis of Resistance has been smashed by Israel, and now blown up by events in Syria. Iran is left with no real proxy in the region other than the Houthis in Yemen.” Iran continues to support influential militias in neighboring Iraq. Nevertheless, Mr. Jeffrey characterized the situation as “This is a totally unprecedented collapse of a regional hegemon.” Assad’s final public appearance occurred on 1 December during a meeting with the Iranian Foreign Minister, where he pledged to “crush” rebels approaching the Syrian capital. The Kremlin has since reported that he is in Russia, having departed the country. Hossein Akbari, Iran’s ambassador to Syria, referred to Assad as the “front end of the Axis of Resistance.” However, when Bashar al-Assad’s rule concluded, a diminished Iran—taken aback by the swift disintegration of his military—proved both incapable and disinclined to intervene on his behalf. Within a few days, the sole remaining state in the “Axis of Resistance,” which served as its lynchpin, had fallen. For decades, Iran had cultivated a network of militias to sustain its regional influence and to act as a deterrent against Israeli aggression, a strategy initiated following the Islamic Revolution of 1979. During the subsequent war with Iraq, Hafez al-Assad, Bashar al-Assad’s father, provided support to Iran. The alliance between Iran’s Shia clerics and the Assad family—who belong to the minority Alawite sect, a branch of Shia Islam—was instrumental in solidifying Iran’s power base within a largely Sunni Middle East. Furthermore, Syria served as a vital supply corridor for Iran to reach its ally Hezbollah in Lebanon, as well as other armed factions in the region. Iran had previously supported Assad. When a popular uprising in 2011 escalated into a civil war, making him appear vulnerable, Tehran supplied combatants, fuel, and weaponry. Over 2,000 Iranian soldiers and generals died in Syria, ostensibly acting as “military advisers.” Dr. Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa programme at the Chatham House think tank, stated, “We know that Iran spent $30bn