Early Voting in the US Election: What the Data Reveals and Conceals

Election Day in the United States is officially scheduled for Tuesday, yet millions of Americans have already cast their votes. With early voting sites nationwide experiencing queues, over 62.7 million voters had submitted ballots by Thursday, marking a significant figure. Political factions on both sides have promptly cited early voting statistics as proof that their respective campaigns are gaining a decisive edge. However, deciphering the true implications of this data remains a complex challenge. One certainty is that American voting behaviors have evolved, with shifts in conduct from the pandemic persisting. This year’s early voting totals fall considerably short of the 101.5 million early ballots cast in 2020, when the Covid virus deterred many from crowded polling stations, but they surpass the total early votes recorded in 2016 (47.2 million) and 2012 (46.2 million). While each state manages early voting procedures uniquely, some insights into participant demographics are available. Certain states disclose raw totals for mail-in ballots, in-person voting days, or both. Many also share voters’ party affiliations and, occasionally, more detailed demographic information such as gender, race, and age. Nevertheless, the broader electoral landscape remains ambiguous, and any conclusions drawn about this election season should be approached with caution. Many interpretations of early voting trends are based solely on demographic data. The specific candidates for whom these ballots were cast will not be known until Election Day. Here are some observations, derived from state reports compiled by the University of Florida Election Lab. Republicans appear to be overcoming their previous reservations about early voting. In 2020, they constituted 30.5% of the total early votes in the 20 states that track party registration, compared to 44.8% for Democrats. This disparity was partly attributed to Trump’s warnings about widespread corruption in mail voting. The former president has adopted a different stance this year, and Republicans are following suit. They currently account for 36.1% of early votes cast nationwide, while Democrats represent 38.9% (the remaining quarter comprises voters unaffiliated with any party or registered with a third party). This shift is significant because it suggests a “red mirage” effect might be less pronounced. Four years ago, Republicans initially led in areas like Pennsylvania because Election Day in-person votes were tallied before early ballots, which tended to favor Democrats, were counted by poll workers. Meanwhile, Democrats this year might find encouragement in the gender gap, at least concerning early vote participation. In the six states that provide gender data, including the crucial battlegrounds of Georgia, Michigan, and North Carolina, women have cast 54.2% of the early ballots to date. This percentage is a few points higher than the 2020 figure identified in post-election exit polls conducted by Edison Research. If recent surveys accurately indicate that women are now supporting Democrats by a historically wide margin, it could provide a boost for Vice-President Kamala Harris. Examining individual states, over 50% of eligible voters in Georgia have now cast ballots, indicating high voter enthusiasm. The early turnout there is slightly whiter and older than the early voting electorate in 2020. This demographic shift could potentially benefit Donald Trump. The former president is also receiving positive news from Nevada, where more registered Republicans have cast ballots than registered Democrats. This represents a notable departure from previous elections, where Democrats established a substantial early voting lead, particularly in the Las Vegas metropolitan area, which helped them secure victory despite a surge of rural conservatives voting on Election Day. However, like most early voting data, Nevada’s tabulations come with a caveat. An increasing number of young voters are now registered as unaffiliated independents, even though they lean left. If these voters ultimately cast ballots for Harris, it could place the state in Harris’s column on Election Day. Similar examples offering both optimistic and pessimistic interpretations are evident across the country. In Pennsylvania, for instance, more registered Democrats have voted than Republicans, but their lead is by a smaller margin than in 2020, when President Joe Biden won the state. Furthermore, this analysis does not account for independent voters, frustrated moderate suburban Republicans who might vote for Harris, or traditional blue-collar Democrats who are now supporting Trump. And, it is important to remember that 158 million Americans cast ballots for president in 2020, representing 65.9% of the voting-eligible population. Even if this mark is not reached this time, a considerable number of potential ballots are still awaiting submission. While political enthusiasts may be eager to predict outcomes with only a few days remaining until the election, for now, the results largely offer inconclusive insights. North America correspondent Anthony Zurcher makes sense of the race for the White House in his twice weekly US Election Unspun newsletter. Readers in the UK can sign up here. Those outside the UK can sign up here. Copyright 2024 BBC. All rights reserved. The BBC is not responsible for the content of external sites. Read about our approach to external linking.