Biden Confirms Ceasefire Agreement Between Israel and Hezbollah

US President Joe Biden has announced that a ceasefire agreement has been reached to conclude 13 months of conflict between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon. Biden stated, “Effective at 04:00 tomorrow local time (02:00 GMT on Wednesday), the fighting across the Lebanese-Israeli border will end,” further noting that the objective was a “permanent cessation of hostilities”. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared that Israel would not hesitate to launch strikes if Hezbollah violated any aspect of the agreed deal. The Iran-backed armed group, which had been exchanging fire with Israel since October 2023, has not yet issued a response. The conflict intensified in late September following increased Israeli bombardments and a limited ground invasion. According to local officials, this conflict has been Lebanon’s deadliest in decades, resulting in the deaths of over 3,823 individuals. The ceasefire commenced as scheduled during the night on Wednesday. Both parties recorded attacks up until a brief period before the agreement became effective. Israel issued evacuation orders for certain areas of Beirut four hours prior to the ceasefire deadline, conducting strikes just before it. Hezbollah, similarly, launched drones into Israel in the hours leading up to the cessation of fighting. The agreement, announced on Tuesday and facilitated by the US, stipulates a 60-day timeframe during which Israel will progressively pull its forces out of southern Lebanon, while Lebanese government troops re-establish control over territory presently occupied by Hezbollah. Hezbollah fighters and their weaponry are anticipated to be withdrawn from the region south of the Litani River, a demarcation line set following the conclusion of the previous Israel-Hezbollah conflict in 2006. A joint statement from the US and France, who will participate in overseeing the agreement’s implementation, affirmed: “This announcement will create the conditions to restore lasting calm and allow residents in both countries to return safely to their homes.” Israel has asserted its right to respond militarily should Hezbollah violate the ceasefire. President Biden reiterated this stance, stating that Israel “retains the right to self defence consistent with international law”. Netanyahu further elaborated, “If Hezbollah violates the agreement and tries to arm itself, we will attack. If it tries to rebuild terrorist infrastructure near the border, we will attack.” Netanyahu also indicated that ceasing hostilities against Hezbollah in Lebanon, Israel’s northern neighbor, would enable the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) to concentrate on “the Iranian threat”. Hezbollah in Lebanon had historically been regarded as Iran’s primary defensive line. However, with a significant portion of the group’s missile arsenal now destroyed, the military equilibrium between Iran and Israel seems to have shifted to Israel’s advantage. While Israel and Hezbollah have historically been adversaries, the recent 13 months of conflict were initiated by the war in the Gaza Strip. Hezbollah began launching rockets into Israel one day after its Gaza ally, Hamas, executed a broad attack on southern Israel on 7 October 2023, which resulted in approximately 1,200 fatalities. Netanyahu stated that ending the conflict in Lebanon would also serve to isolate Hamas and intensify pressure on the group. Netanyahu remarked, “From day two of the war, Hamas was counting on Hezbollah to fight by its side. With Hezbollah out of the picture, Hamas is left on its own.” He added that concluding the fighting in Lebanon would also provide the IDF with the opportunity to resupply weapons, munitions, and troops. Israeli commentators had observed that the nation’s military was neither prepared nor equipped to sustain two wars on two fronts for an extended duration. Consequently, ending the conflict in Lebanon could also release additional Israeli forces for deployment in Gaza, a conflict that shows no indication of concluding. During an appearance at the White House on Tuesday, Biden, when questioned about a Gaza ceasefire, affirmed that his administration was collaborating with other mediators, Turkey, Egypt, and Qatar, to “make another push” for an agreement. The US, a principal supporter of Israel, spearheaded negotiations for the Lebanon deal alongside France. France, which governed Lebanon for over two decades in the previous century, is also a longstanding ally and is anticipated to participate in monitoring the truce. Biden confirmed that no US military personnel would be deployed for ceasefire management. The conflict has had a devastating impact on Lebanon, where, besides 3,823 fatalities and 15,859 injuries, one million inhabitants have been displaced in regions under Hezbollah’s influence. Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati expressed approval of the ceasefire agreement, characterizing it as a “fundamental step towards restoring calm and stability” within the nation and enabling citizens to return to their residences. However, he also insisted that Israel “fully comply” with the agreement, evacuate the locations it presently occupies, and adhere to the UN resolution previously established at the conclusion of the last Hezbollah-Israel conflict in 2006. Israel initiated its offensive against Hezbollah – an organization designated as terrorist by Israel and numerous Western nations – following nearly a year of cross-border skirmishes ignited by the Gaza war. Israel has stated its objective is to guarantee the secure return of approximately 60,000 residents from northern Israeli regions who were displaced by rocket attacks, which Hezbollah launched in solidarity with Palestinians. According to Israeli authorities, Hezbollah’s attacks on Israel and the occupied Golan Heights have resulted in at least 75 deaths, with over half being civilians, while more than 50 soldiers have died in combat in southern Lebanon. The World Bank estimates economic losses and damage in Lebanon at $8.5bn (£6.8bn). Recovery is expected to be protracted, and the funding mechanism for this is currently unknown. Hezbollah has also suffered significant devastation. Many of its leaders, including its long-standing chief Hassan Nasrallah, were killed in an IDF strike on Beirut on 27 September. A week subsequent to this, Israel also eliminated his presumed successor, Hashem Safieddine, in a separate strike. With a substantial portion of its infrastructure also damaged, Hezbollah’s future state post-conflict remains uncertain. The group has been considerably weakened but not eradicated. Within Lebanon, Hezbollah functions as more than just a militia; it is also a political party with parliamentary representation and a social organization enjoying substantial backing among Shia Muslims. Opponents of Hezbollah might perceive this as a chance to curtail its influence – it was frequently characterized as “a state within a state” in Lebanon prior to the conflict – and there are widespread concerns that this could trigger internal strife. Since escalating the conflict in September, Israel has conducted hundreds of daily strikes in Lebanon, targeting what it identified as Hezbollah-controlled areas in the south, east, and the capital, Beirut. Even as reports surfaced on Tuesday that Netanyahu was deliberating a ceasefire agreement with his cabinet, the IDF maintained its strikes, targeting Beirut with attacks that resulted in at least 10 fatalities.