2024 anticipated to be the initial year to exceed the 1.5C global warming threshold

Projections from the European climate service indicate it is “virtually certain” that 2024, a year marked by severe heatwaves and lethal storms, will register as the warmest globally since records began. The global average temperatures for the year are expected to exceed 1.5C above pre-industrial levels, positioning 2024 as the inaugural calendar year to surpass this significant threshold. These elevated temperatures are primarily attributed to human-induced climate change, with minor influences from natural phenomena like the El Niño weather pattern. Experts suggest this development should serve as a wake-up call in advance of the upcoming UN climate conference, COP29, scheduled for next week in Azerbaijan. Liz Bentley, chief executive of the Royal Meteorological Society, stated, “This latest record sends another stark warning to governments at COP29 of the urgent need for action to limit any further warming.” Throughout the initial 10 months of 2024, global temperatures have reached such elevated levels that only an exceptionally drastic decrease during the concluding two months could avert the establishment of a new record. Data from the European Copernicus Climate Change Service indicates that 2024 is likely to conclude at least 1.55C warmer than pre-industrial eras. The term “Pre-industrial” designates the reference period spanning 1850-1900, which approximately corresponds to the era preceding substantial human-induced planetary warming, such as through the extensive combustion of fossil fuels. This projection suggests that 2024 has the potential to exceed the existing record of 1.48C, which was established just last year. Samantha Burgess, deputy director of Copernicus, commented, “This marks a new milestone in global temperature records.” Furthermore, this would signify the first instance of a calendar year exceeding 1.5C of warming, based on Copernicus data. This holds symbolic importance, as nearly 200 nations committed to endeavor to restrict long-term temperature increases to this threshold under the 2015 Paris climate agreement, aiming to avert some of the most severe consequences of climate change. A breach of the 1.5C limit does not, however, imply that the Paris agreement’s objective has been invalidated, as that goal pertains to average temperatures measured over approximately 20 years to account for natural variations. Nevertheless, each annual exceedance moves the planet nearer to permanently surpassing the 1.5C threshold over the long run. The UN issued a warning last month that, under existing policies, global warming could surpass 3C this century. The particular characteristics of 2024 also present reasons for apprehension. The elevated temperatures observed in early 2024 were amplified by the natural El Niño weather pattern, a phenomenon characterized by unusually warm surface waters in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, which releases additional heat into the atmosphere. This most recent El Niño phase commenced in mid-2023 and concluded around April 2024, yet temperatures have persisted at remarkably high levels thereafter. According to Copernicus data, global average temperatures have established new daily records for this period of the year throughout the past week. Numerous scientists anticipate the imminent development of La Niña, the opposing, cooler phase. Theoretically, this should result in a temporary decrease in global temperatures next year, though the precise unfolding of this situation remains unclear. Ed Hawkins, a professor of climate science at the University of Reading, stated, “We will watch with interest what happens going into 2025 and beyond.” However, as atmospheric greenhouse gas levels continue their rapid ascent, scientists caution that it is probably only a matter of time until further records are established. Professor Hawkins remarked, “The warmer temperatures [are making] storms more intense, heatwaves hotter and heavy rainfall more extreme, with clearly seen consequences for people all around the world.” He added, “Stabilising global temperatures by reaching net zero emissions is the only way to stop adding to the costs of these disasters.” Readers can subscribe to the Future Earth newsletter for exclusive insights into the most recent climate and environmental news from BBC’s Climate Editor Justin Rowlatt, delivered weekly. An international newsletter is also available for those outside the UK. Copyright 2024 BBC. All rights reserved. The BBC disclaims responsibility for the content found on external websites. Information regarding its external linking policy is available.